WHAT NOW FOR OUR COVID-BATTERED NATION?
Slow approach to reopening is order of day
The Government is to lay out its recovery plan next month and will fund Covid supports as long as needed, reports Hugh O’Connell
NEXT month Finance Minister Paschal Donohoe and Public Expenditure Minister Michael McGrath will present a draft National Recovery and Resilience Plan to the Cabinet sub-committee on economic recovery.
The plan, which will be finalised and published before the end of April, will lay out how the Government proposes to spend €853m over the next two years. The money will come via grants from the EU’s Covid recovery and resilience fund. Every Government department has been asked for their ideas, but there is a big focus on digitising public services and green initiatives.
Other areas likely to be targeted are education and upskilling to deal with the unemployment crisis created by the pandemic.
One measure that’s sparking a lot of interest is e-health, effectively digitising more aspects of the health service which still largely operates on paper and hard copy files.
“Rather than spreading the funding too thinly, I think the focus should be on delivering a small number of impactful projects that make a tangible difference,” McGrath told the Sunday Independent.
The two ministers and the Coalition party leaders met with employers’ groups and trade unions last Friday to give them an overview of the plan, which is out to public consultation until February 22. One of those present from the Government side said afterwards the social partners share the view that reopening the country should be cautious and slow. Everyone wants this to be the last lockdown. But business groups also lobbied for financial support when reopening starts so as to help build consumer confidence.
Ministers are beginning to consider a stimulus package for stricken retailers, pubs, restaurants and other businesses forced to shut as a result of the pandemic, as well as companies whose revenue has collapsed. Talks are at a very early stage, but there is likely to be funding to allow some to pursue alternative business models or adapt their premises once they are allowed to reopen. “There is broad acceptance among Ministers that we’ ll have to do something for tourism, hospitality, arts, entertainment and aviation sectors to get them going again,” said a senior Coalition source.
“But without knowing when they can get going again and in what circumstances, there are no solid plans yet.”
Ministers believe construction and the majority of the retail sector may find it easier to bounce back without the need for a major financial intervention.
There is agreement among ministers that there should be “no cliff edge”, as one senior figure put it, for businesses. A second senior Coalition figure said: “There would be a need to do something to help businesses get their doors back open again when that time comes.”
The funds set aside to meet the cost of keeping the economy shut down — the pandemic payment, the Covid restrictions support scheme, and the employment wage subsidy scheme — are coming under enormous strain and currently cost the exchequer around €1bn a month. A recent meeting of the aforementioned Cabinet sub-committee heard that all the funds set aside could be exhausted by June. But the Government will continue to fund these measures for as long as they are needed — and almost certainly well into the summer.
“Even Micheál and Paschal are not overly perturbed about the economic fallout. They have taken a view that if this is the last big lockdown, we’ ll take it on the chin and find a way to pay for it,” said the Government source.
But will it be the last lockdown? No one can honestly say. The more transmissible so-called UK variant is having a dramatic impact. Taoiseach Micheál Martin told his party last week that hospitalisations are still 25pc higher than the April peak and that close contacts of confirmed Covid cases have a positivity rate of just over 22pc. Previously this was around 10 or 11pc. This is stark evidence of how the new variant is impacting. There was a time before Christmas when ministers envisaged that non-essential retail would never have to shut again. But more than 35 outbreaks in recent weeks have been linked back to supermarkets, which have to stay open.
One senior Government figure recently confided their concern about a “fourth winter wave”.
A refresh of the Living with Covid plan will be announced in the week beginning February 22 and will coincide with the likely extension of Level 5 restrictions through the Easter holidays. Barring the phased reopening of schools and construction over the next few weeks, ministers are anxious to get numbers into the low hundreds and keep them there for a three- to four-week period before considering what else could reopen. Some believe it will be well into May before any further loosening of restrictions will happen.
The Government wants to monitor the impact of thousands of children returning to schools, parents dropping them off and the inevitable socialising at school gates.
Thousands more construction workers on sites will also have an impact on case numbers. Nphet has advised the Government that we could be living with between 200 and 400 cases per day for weeks. It will be the end of March before we reach 100 to 200 cases, according to the most recent modelling.
Public health officials are cautious about lifting restrictions, but even they acknowledge that as the weather improves more outdoor activities are inherently less dangerous. Everyone in public health and Government is conscious that the third lockdown is having a profound effect on a nation exhausted and broken by the last year. Ministers will push for things like small outdoor meetings in parks, team sports for children and outdoor pursuits like golf and tennis to be allowed first.
There has been some discussion about the revised Living with Covid plan outlining four or five phases of reopening, but with no specified dates. Instead, entry into different phases of reopening would be dependent on the latest public health advice and key metrics like daily case numbers, hospital admissions and the 14-day incidence rate.
But this may not end up happening. The hope is that the vaccination programme will have a tangible effect on the spread of the virus in healthcare facilities and among the elderly and vulnerable. Early data is promising.
No one anticipates an approach this year like the roadmap for reopening society and business published in May 2020.
Ironically, Martin in opposition last May was ramping up pressure on the government to ditch the 5km and 20km travel limits, arguing there was no scientific basis for them. Conversely Martin’s allies argue he was at the forefront of calling for national guidance on mask-wearing last summer. He saw it not just as a public health measure but as a way of sending a message to the public about how serious the pandemic is. Martin says he wears his mask outdoors when he leaves Government Buildings late at night for a walk trying to get his 10,000 steps in for the day. But there is still no national directive on wearing face masks outdoors.
As Taoiseach, Martin is widely seen as the most conservative and cautious member of the Government when it comes to reopening.
By contrast, Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, when asked last week, confirmed beer gardens could be open by the summer. Martin would not have entertained such questions. It is clear, however, that Varadkar has appeared more circumspect about mandatory hotel quarantine. He told Fine Gael colleagues last week the new regime is unlikely to be as effective as it is in Australia and New Zealand. He also noted it is unclear what measures are being introduced in the North, while adding that the second and third waves of the virus saw large numbers of Covid cases in border counties.
The implication is clear and Varadkar has previously floated the idea of advising against all non-essential travel to the North.
The island’s porous border makes a Zero Covid strategy unworkable unless there is near-total cross-border alignment on restrictions. Ireland shares some culpability for this failing to happen. The North’s Health Minister Robin Swann has been appealing to Stephen Donnelly for months to share information about passengers arriving into Dublin and travelling North.
Varadkar also believes the numbers in ICU need to be falling towards or at 50 — they stood at 171 yesterday — before easing restrictions.
‘One man determines the fate of the nation and that man is Tony’