Endgame for Enda or will he hang on?

IF a week is a long time in politics then the last fortnight must have seemed like an eon for embattled Taoiseach Enda Kenny.

For almost two weeks now Mr Kenny has lurched his way through a series of gaffes and humiliations with all the political skill of a giraffe trying to waterski. In little over a week the Taoiseach was very publically humiliated by Northern Ireland’s First Minister Arlene Foster and brought to heel by Fianna Fáil over Joe O’Toole’s role on the water charges commission.

Then - in a hugely embarrassing climb-down on Mick Wallace’s Eighth Amendment vote - he allowed Shane Ross and his Independent Alliance colleagues in cabinet to completely undermine Attorney General Máire Whelan and shatter the constitutionally-enshrined concept of cabinet collective responsibility.

Finally, he made the astonishing decision to reappoint James Reilly – who lost his Dáil seat in February and was appointed to the Seanad by Enda Kenny in May – as Deputy Leader of Fine Gael.

While the Foster, O’Toole and Ross debacles – and how they highlight this government’s unprecedented lack of power and influence - should be of most concern to the electorate it is the Reilly decision that looks most likely to bring Mr Kenny down.

By all accounts Fine Gael TDs and Ministers were utterly stunned when the Taoiseach announced he was re-appointing Dr Reilly to the position, just a month after he had unceremoniously sacked him in a move widely seen as a warning to other potential Fine Gael dissidents.

Mr Kenny’s reputation as a skilful political operator was copperfastened in June 2010 when he successfully fought off a leadership coup led by his then Deputy Leader Richard Bruton. Six years on his position is much diminished. Most of the key allies who helped him crush Minister Bruton’s challenge – particularly Phil Hogan – are long gone and at the cabinet table the Taoiseach is now surrounded by ministers who were calling for his head six years ago.

It is a remarkably rapid fall from grace for a man who – while never the most charismatic of leaders – was renowned for his tactical nous and his willingness to juggle and abandon his political allies as needs arose.

With his leadership threatened as never before Mr Kenny finds himself with few political friends and he must surely now be examining his options.

It is often said that all political careers end in failure – witness the spectacular collapse of David Cameron’s UK premiership post Brexit – and Kenny, the first Fine Gael leader to secure re-election as Taoiseach, will doubtless not want his legacy to be dominated by the nature of his political demise.

With at least three leadership candidates circling and backbenchers in open revolt Enda Kenny’s days as Taoiseach and leader of Fine Gael are numbered.

The only questions now are just how long he will last and who will pull the trigger that starts the endgame? The manner of that endgame will be the major concern for Fine Gael, and the pretenders to Kenny’s throne.

With Fianna Fáil buoyant in the polls and extremely difficult budget negotiations looming Fine Gael will want as orderly a transition as possible. Whether Mr Kenny obliges remains the great question.

Fine Gael back benchers are right to fear Micheál Martin and Fianna Fáil.

A messy Fine Gael leadership contest in the middle of a fraught budget process would present an ideal opportunity for Martin’s party to pull the plug on the minority Government and trigger a snap election.