Permutations and combinations: Dundalk still have it all to play for
DUNDALK might have failed to beat Zenit St Petersburg on their trip to Russia last week but the draw in the other Group D game between Maccabi Tel Aviv and AZ Alkmaar means Stephen Kenny’s side are still in pole position to reach the last 32 of the competition and scoop the €5.5 million bonus that goes along with it.
The Lilywhites remain in second place in the group despite the loss at the Petrovsky Stadium on the basis of their head-to-head record, which is taken into account before goal difference or goals scored.
Both Dundalk and Maccabi Tel Aviv have four points after four games. Both have a goal difference of -1. Maccabi have an advantage in terms of goal scored having scored three in their 4-3 loss to Zenit in the opening game.
However, Dundalk’s 1-0 victory in Tallaght leaves them a nose ahead of the Israelis, who they will meet in Netanya on December 8th.
The easiest way for Dundalk to advance is to win the next two matches but four points from their remaining two games would also effectively guarantee them a spot in the next round.
The other permutations are as follows:
Win against Alkmaar DUNDALK’S surest route to the knockout round would see them beat AZ Alkmaar, who sit bottom of Group D with just two points, in Tallaght in two weeks.
Ultimately, regardless of what Maccabi Tel Aviv do against Zenit, Dundalk know that a win and a draw, in either order, will guarantee them a spot in the knockout round.
If Dundalk were to win in Tallaght on November 24th and Maccabi Tel Aviv lost in St Peterberg, then Dundalk would sit three points ahead of the Israelis heading into the final game. A draw or a win would obviously then be a sufficient in Israel, regardless of what happened in Zenit-Maccabi.
Assuming they’ve beaten Alkmaar, even a loss to Maccabi wouldn’t be fatal depending on the circumstances.
If Dundalk only won by one goal against Alkmaar and Maccabi only lost by one goal against Zenit, then a 1-0 win for the Israelis in the final match would be sufficient to carry them through on goals scored.
But it would be best if the Russians
were to give Tel Aviv the runaround on their own patch. In those circumstances, a 1-0 win for Maccabi wouldn’t be enough to dislodge Dundalk from second place as the Irish champions would win out on goal difference.
Draw with Alkmaar A draw would leave them needing some sort of result in Israel.
Two draws would be satisfactory for Dundalk provided Maccabi Tel Aviv failed to win in Zenit. In that case both would finish on the same number of points with Dundalk maintaining their head to head advantage over the Israelis. The only complication here would be if Alkmaar sprung a surprise at home to Zenit in their final game.
So, if we get three draws and an Alkmaar win over Zenit from the four remaining matches, we end up with three teams on six points.
In that case, the matter is settled in a triangular tournament style head to head between the three competing clubs. In this breakdown, Dundalk and Maccabi Tel Aviv would finish on six points while Alkmaar would finish on three - as three of their points would be collected against the Russians.
Alkmaar are thus eliminated and we would return to just looking at the head to head results of Dundalk-Maccabi, which would see Dundalk through.
Lose to Alkmaar IF Dundalk lost to Alkmaar. drew with Tel Aviv and Zenit maintain their 100% record, then the group has the potential to get very complex. All three sides involved in the scrap for second spot would finish on five points.
Even in the triangular head to head, they’d still find themselves on five. It would then come down to goal difference of which there are too many possibilities to go into. Dundalk would have some ground to make up with Maccabi as they have a slightly poorer goals scored record.
At this stage Dundalk could do without Zenit fielding a weakened team in their remaining two matches.
Given that the Russian side are already assured first place, this is a definite concern.
A loss to Alkmaar and a win against the Israelis would likely be enough provided Zenit didn’t rest players and send out a half-hearted team to Holland.