Adams’ stepping down will be a true test of strength of his movement
THE immediate consequence of the announcement by Gerry Adams at the Sinn Fein Ard Fheis on Saturday night is that Louth will have at least one new TD following the next General Election.
Having first been elected for the constituency in the 2011 General Election and then returned to Dáil Éireann after the 2016 General Election, he stated on Saturday night that he will not contest the next election whenever it is held, as well as stepping down as party President during 2018.
It is the natural order of life and no one goes on forever.
Politics is a fickle business, perhaps only the life of a football manager is a more precarious career choice, but Gerry Adams has withstood the slings and arrows of the political world better than most and is now leader of the Sinn Fein for 34 years.
There no other political party leader in the western world with such longevity and the length of his tenure as party President has been quite remarkable both for the duration and for the transformation in the party during that period.
During his time at the head of Sinn Fein, the party has grown from political minnows to completely overtake the SDLP in Northern Ireland and become the third largest party in the Republic of Ireland.
Crucially the republican movement under Gerry Adams and the late Martin McGuinness signed up to a peace process which led to the Good Friday Agreement, the end of IRA terrorism, and power sharing in Stormont with the DUP, a journey that was not without its flaws, dangers or critics, but history will show that both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness were crucial to taking republicans on this path.
Yet while every other political party has leadership heaves and challenges there has been no such disharmony within Sinn Fein, at least publicly. It was quite clear that his tenure as Party President was quite secure from within and was also never going to yield to pressure from without, particularly from elements of the media and political opponents.
From a party perspective he had earned the right to choose the timing and manner of his departure.
Yet it was increasingly apparent since the 2016 General Election that his close association with the IRA and their violent campaign was seen by some as a hindrance to the party’s ambitions of entering government in the Republic and senior TDs were quietly growing frustrated at this blockage, while always remaining publicly steadfast in their support of their colleague and leader.
Now that the balloon is popped it will be interesting to see how the party reacts and how the public respond to a Sinn Fein party without Gerry Adams at the helm. Will party discipline remain as cohesive as previously or will his departure open up fractures within the party between members north and south or between hardline republicans and those of a more pragmatic outlook.
Was his presence indeed a blockage to wider support for Sinn Fein amongst the general public or was his leadership a sprinkle of stardust that attracted wider support than the party would otherwise have gained.
Looking at the question in Louth, you would suspect that the latter may be the case.
Certainly his unexpected arrival into southern politics in time for the 2011 General Election boosted the party as he polled over 15,000 first preference votes in that election and exceeded the quota. On the canvas trail it was clear that Gerry Adams had a star quality for many he met on the campaign and they were bowled over by his presence and stardom.
Don’t forget of course that he arrived in Louth at a time of severe economic hardship, when austerity measures were cutting deep, unemployment was rising and the former Fianna Fáil/Green Party Government was deeply, deeply unpopular.
Sinn Fein, along with other anti-establishment parties resonated with the public and got a big bounce in support.
Here in Louth, Sinn Fein swallowed up much of that anti-establishment support, which was so evident with the rise in People Before Profit, Anti-Austerity Alliance, the Socialists or a raft of independent candidates throughout the country. Here, Sinn Fein gobbled up that anti-establishment vote, leaving only morsels for candidates from those groupings who thrived elsewhere.
Sinn Fein carried that surge of support into the last local elections where they had all but one of their candidates elected and returned ten members to the County Council and again into the 2016 General Election where their inflated support gave them a surge of confidence to run a second candidate, not as a sweeper to carry Gerry Adams over the line through transfers but to secure a historic second seat for the party, a task the party and Imelda Munster comfortably achieved.
The opinion polls in the coming weeks and months will be closely watched in equal measure by Sinn Fein members and their opponents.
Will Sinn Fein get a bounce with the imminent departure of Gerry Adams, as those who previously considered the party toxic now consider them as acceptable?
Perhaps his star quality was the catalyst to attracting votes to the party and as he prepares to leave the stage, party support will start to wane.
Perhaps Sinn Fein’s opposition voice against unpopular government measures is their biggest attraction for voters and they like the Progressive Democrats, Greens and Labour before them will continue to soar until they enter government as a junior party when they too will crash and burn.
Ultimately a new leader will be selected or elected by the party before the next General Election, unless there is a snap unexpected election in the coming months and we will only know the true impact of Gerry Adams’ retirement after we count all the votes cast, both nationally and in Louth, where Sinn Fein must select a new candidate to stand alongside Imelda Munster TD who you would expect will be seeking re-election.
The party have surprised the public before when Gerry Adams first pitched up in County Louth and may do so again, but for now, the choice of possible candidate comes from within their ranks of county councillors, with Tomás Sharkey, Ruairí Ó Murchú, Anne Campbell, Edel Corrigan and Antóin Watters the obvious starting point.
A deeply divisive character, his time in Louth was never dull but we will soon find out if Sinn Fein were all about the man or whether he has laid solid foundations for the party in Louth and beyond.
Time will tell.