ELECTION 2020 SPECIAL : CORK NORTH WEST ELECTORAL AREA IN THE SPOTLIGHT
It’s a Game of Thrones set in Cork North West
WITH three of the most keenly observed Dáil seats in the country, in what has traditionally been viewed as a bellwether constituency, Cork North West could be one of those that decide the make-up of the next government.
For decades, the two main parties in the country – Fianna Fail and Fine Gael - have shared the seats in this constituency, in the ratio of 2:1. And it’s all in that third seat – which way will it go?
Whichever party is ‘up’ in the polls tend to win the third seat – if they get their election strategy right. However, while Fine Gael ‘won’ the election and went on to form a (minority) government, they didn’t win the third seat. As we will look at later, there was one good reason for that – and while current polls are predicting a swing away from FG and towards Fianna Fail, it doesn’t necessarily mean FF will retain the third seat in 2020. There’s a reason, or two, for that, also.
While the constituency has been a battleground – including literally - since the foundation of the state, Cork North West, as it is today, has only been in existence since the 1981 general election.
Due to its size and landscape it is considered one of the most difficult constituencies to canvass in Ireland. It runs from Charleville and Rockchapel in the north to Ballingeary, Crookstown and Crossbarry in the south. The main towns are Ballincollig, Charleville, Kanturk, Macroom, Millstreet and Newmarket, with a great many sizeable villages, also.
At the 2016 general election, the townlands of Dromore, Kilcullen, Kilshannig and Mountrivers were moved from the Cork North- Central constituency into Cork NW.
As a consequence of its size and geography Cork NW tends to be divided between north and south, roughly along and eat-west line running through Millstreet. Thus, there tends to be ‘northern’ and ‘southern’ candidates and, indeed, Dail deputies.
Indeed, the main parties choose candidates and canvas north and south of the Millstreet line. In the past, smaller parties and independents have cast a broader net, but few get to cover the entire constituency, due to its size and spread.
Meanwhile, in the past, parties such as Labour and Sinn Féin have launched hopeful bids at making inroads – and have made notable progress – but ultimately have failed to break the stranglehold of FF/FG.
That makes this a daunting prospect for smaller parties and independents, but it’s a case of ‘once more unto the breach’ for General Election 2020.
This time out there are nine candidates vying for the three seats: 2 Fianna Fail, 2 Fine Gael, 1 Green, 1 Aontú, 1 Irish Freedom Party, 1 Social Democrat and 1 Independent.
While Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Social Democrats, the Greens and Aontú are fielding standard bearers, Sinn Féin and Labour have decided to sit it out on this occasion.
Among the themes being addressed by the candidates who are in the fray, the fight to retain essential services and the necessities of community life in rural areas is being mentioned by all of the candidates as being among their priorities.
At present Michael and Aindrias Moynihan, who aren’t related, hold two Fianna Fáil seats while Michael Creed, who has been a very active Agriculture Minister, is the FG TD in the three seater.
The emergence of former independent John Paul O’Shea as a challenger for a FG second seat is, going on past experience, likely to mean a down to the wire contest with one of the Moynihans for the third seat.
But in a time of a ‘green wave’ and strong swings in the polls nothing can truly be ruled out – or in.