Cork North West Constituency
ELECTION 2020 How it played out in 2016
COMING in to the 2016 general election in Cork North West it was very much a case of ‘it’s Fine Gael’s ... for the losing’ – and that’s exactly what happened.
Nationally, it was a bad day for the party and that’s how it panned out locally with Áine Collins losing the seat she had won in the previous general election.
Meanwhile, what surprised many in 2016 was the strength of the first preference vote for Aindrias Moynihan, who topped the poll to be elected for the first time. Son of late former TD Donal Moynihan, Aindrias had a strong team around him that worked hard on the ground, including current county councillor, his sister Gobnait.
When the first count arrived it showed Aindrias Moynihan topping the poll with 8,924 votes (18.8%) just ahead of the neighbouring and longstanding Michael Creed on 8,868 (18.7%).
Michael Moynihan (FF) dropped almost four percentage points on the 2011 election, and 1,500 first preferences, to be in third place on 7,332 (15.5%).
Then – and crucially – came the sitting TD Áine Collins (6,237, 13.2%) and the then Independent John Paul
O’Shea (4,814, 10.2%).
Interestingly, their votes combined would have topped the poll (11,051) but how many of these votes can John Paul O’Shea retain is a key question for Election 2020. Certainly, he would seem bound to drop at least some of those won for his ‘Independent’ stance in 2016. At the same time, he’s likely to retain some of those 4,814 of 2016 and add many Fine Gael votes on top this time round ... and then there’s the ‘swing’ against Fine Gael to be factored in.
Meanwhile, in 2016 Sinn Féin’s Nigel Dennehy posted a solid 3,238 (6.8%) – many were expecting former MEP Liadh Ní Riada to run this time – and anti-austerity campaigner, and journalist Diarmuid O’Flynn didn’t do badly with 2,158 (4.6%).
There were 13 candidates and it took nine counts to settle the issue. As happens in Cork NW, as lower candidates are eliminated their votes are redistributed as much along geographical lines as party or left\right. Thus, Michael Creed’s (FG) eventual surplus was shared almost equally between the two Moynihans (FF) and John Paul O’Shea (Ind).
However, during the count, O’Shea pulled in more transfers than Áine Collins, overtaking her on the 7th count.
Neither of the Moynihans received a great many transfers and, in the end, it was Creed’s surplus that pulled near neighbour Aindrias over the line. Michael Moynihan was elected without reaching the quota with Collins and O’Shea left wondering what might have been.
It was “just not a good day” for the Fine Gael party, Aine Collins conceded after, while O’Shea pointed out: “In the very end all that divided us [he and Ml Moynihan] was 249 votes” ... 249 votes to watch on February 9.