Cork North West Constituency
The North\South strategy: surefire cute hoorism or a recipe for disaster?
THE practise, by both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, of dividing the constituency along a north \ south line has worked consistently down the decades.
And it has also backfired equally as consistently.
The theory goes that if you have a strong candidate north and south, without either poaching votes over the line, then in a good year either party can get two candidates elected – it being a bad year for the other party.
Looking back as far as 1981, Fine Gael have, in the main, had the better of it, having the second TD in six out of the ten Dáils. However, Fianna Fáil have had the second TD in four out of the last five.
How this plays out on the ground is that if, say, you travel along the N22 (Ballincolligyou will see no trace of ‘northerners’ John Paul O’Shea or Michael Moynihan. Their ‘southern’ counterparts Creed and Aindrias Moynihan are equally absent across the northern end.
Meanwhile, each candidate advocates for a No.2 for their colleague, in the hopes of bringing him/her over the line with their surplus at the death.
According to one Fine Gael election watcher, speaking to this paper last week, the first count will very likely determine who the successful candidates are likely to be and there’ll be barely 500 votes separating the top three names.
He said that, for canvassing purposes, voters will be canvassed in Millstreet and Ballydaly to give first preferences to John Paul O’Shea, who’s based in Lombardstown near Mallow, while Michael Creed will be to the fore all points south of there. “Michael Creed will probably get a share of votes from Millstreet as well as that’s where his mother is from,” said the Fine Gael election watcher.
“Ballincollig will be open to both candidates to seek the lion’s share of the vote there.”
The fact that Fine Gael won an extra seat in Ballincollig at the recent council elections will mean an extra spring in the step for the Government party – but that’s more than offset by the possibility of a nationwide swing against the party.
“If we’re to stand a chance of getting two candidates elected, they will be both coming in just under the quota – they won’t have any surplus to distribute,” said the Fine Gael watcher.
“It’s mathematically impossible for Cork North West to elect two candidates who hail from north of Millstreet,” was the blunt verdict of a Fianna Fáil pundit. “Every election there’s ever been in Cork NW – bar one - has been won by two southern based candidates,” he added.
Another telling factor in this year’s election is that most of the candidates are from the south of the constituency which means that contending candidates from that part of the constituency are more likely to pick up second preferences and transfers as the weaker candidates get eliminated.
What seems certain, is that it’s once again going to be a close run thing, where every vote will count – remember
John Paul O’Shea’s by 249 to Michael Moynihan in 2016.
However, if each party candidate is practically invisible on the other, north\south, of the constituency – and this particularly applies to the ‘northerners’ - aren’t they in danger of losing critical votes.
We saw elsewhere in these pages how Michael’s Creed’s surplus last time out did not elect O’Shea, but his geographical neighbour, opposition candidate Aindrias Moynihan.
Are the big parties being just too cute for their own good?
What’s certain is that for at least one of the ‘ big two’ it has to end in disaster.