Breaking the mold is possible, if difficult

OUTSIDE of the main parties it’s a seriously uphill battle for anyone to make inroads into the votes of Cork North West.

Labour has tried and failed, and are not even running a candidate here in this election.

Sinn Féin have tried and failed, and they too are not running in 2002 – even though many thought former MEP Liadh Ní Riada could have been a contender.

So have a range of other smaller parties tried and failed, from the Progressive Democrats (Sean O’Riordan got 3,796 first preferences in 1987) to the Irish Communist Party (Michael O’Donnell got 145 votes in 2016) and none has even threatened the ‘ big two’ in this constituency that is among the most conservative in the country.

So, is there no hope for the new kids on the block?

In 2016, candidates from outside the main parties received 10,782 first preference votes, 22.5% of the poll and almost a full quota. So, one could say the votes are out there for the right candidate.

Another factor to consider is that none of the main contenders have a strong hold on Ballincollig, with its circa 19,000 votes – and that’s where Ciaran McCarthy of the Social Democrats comes in. A respected barrister based in Ballincollig, if he can garner a sizeable chunk of the local first preference vote he could begin to shake things up.

Becky Kealy of Aontú, in the north, and the Greens’ Colette Finn also have claims on votes. Kealy has good connections from Banteer to Kanturk while Finn can ride the ‘green wave’ and build on the 1,354 votes her party colleague Cormac Manning got in 2016.

Tara Nic Domhnaill of the Irish Freedom Party is tough to call and Sean O’Leary, of the 11 constituencies is so dark a horse he’s too tough to consider.

So, if Kealy, Finn and McCarthy can between them hoover up the, possible, 10,782 ‘alternative’ votes between them, and those votes transfer ‘alternatively’ as the lower candidates are eliminated, then one of them could be in a position to threaten the lowest of the four from FF\FG. And that could change everything.

The battle for the seats in Cork North West is, more than most other constituencies, like Game of Thrones in reverse. It’s not so much a case of who ‘wins’ the election, but rather who are the last ones standing when all the others are eliminated.

If an ‘alternative’ (anyone other than FG\FF) candidate can get ahead of anyone of the Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil candidates it would likely upend the pattern of decades.