Bookies backing Buckley after SF showing in polls

WITH people across the country set to go to the polls on Saturday to cast their votes, The CorkmanFoley has taken a final look at how the bookies think #GE2020 might pan out in the Cork East and Cork North West constituencies.

A similar exercise undertaken two weeks ago found that they, along with many political pundits, agreed that unless there was a shock in store it would not be too unreasonable to think that the four sitting Cork East TD’s would stand more than a reasonable chance of retaining their seats.

The only one of the four that had a possible question mark over his name was Sinn Féin’s Pat Buckley, with BetFair, Boyle Sports and Paddy Power saying he might face a battle to retain the seat he narrowly won back in 2016.

However, with various polls showing a surge in popularity for Sinn Féin over recent days, Deputy Buckley’s odds have somewhat shortened with Paddy Power now quoting him at 1/5 to be re-elected. It may not come as a surprise to some that they are quoting the same odds for Kevin O’Keeffe (FF) and David Stanton (FG). What may raise some eyebrows is that they have quoted newcomer Cllr James O’Connor (FF) at 1/3 to take a seat ahead of Labour TD Seán Sherlock at 2/5.

While they have not written off Fine Gael’s Pa O’Driscoll at 4/1 or Independent Mary Linehan

(9/2), the Green Party’s Liam Quaide has drifted to 12/1.

Boylesports have installed Deputies O’Keeffe and Stanton as 1/5 certainties, with Deputy Buckley at 2/9, Cllr O’Connor at 1/4 and Deputy Sherlock at 4/9. They quoted Mary Linehan-Foley at 4/1, Mr O’Driscoll at 9/2 and Mr Quaide at 10/1.

Betfair have plumped for odds of 1/5 on O’Keeffe, Stanton and Buckley, with O’Connor at 1/3, Sherlock at 2/5, O’Driscoll at 4/1, Linehan-Foley at 9/2 and Quaide at 12/1.

Should these odds reflect how the people of Cork East will vote on Saturday, it would appear the battle for the fourth seat could go right down to the wire.

If the bookies are to believed, the battle in the three-seat Cork North West constituency could be a somewhat more straight forward affair, with all three predicting it will be ‘as you are’ once the votes have been totted up.

Both Paddy Power and Betfair are offering odds of 1/14 on the two Fianna Fáil incumbents, Deputies Michael Moynihan and Aindrias Moynihan, with Agriculture Minister Michael Creed at 1/9. Boylesports differ slightly in that they are offering 1/12 on all three sitting TD’s.

According to all three bookies the only candidate that could pose a threat to them is Fine Gael’s Cllr John Paul O’Shea with Boylesports offering 9/4 and the others placing Cllr O’Shea at 2/1.