14,563 votes up for grabs in Cork North West since 2016 poll
WITH just two days to go to Saturday’s election, the numerologists in the different campaigns are eyeing the votes cast in 2016 for candidates and parties that aren’t standing in Cork North West this time around.
In 2016 candidates and parties not standing on this occasion received 14,563 votes, which, considering the quota was 11,740, is enough to induce a mouth watering reaction among this year’s crop of candidates in a race considered to be the tightest it has been for long years.
While John Paul O’Shea’s area of canvassing includes Millstreet where Áine Collins hails from, he shouldn’t count on getting all of her her 6,307 first preferences as some of those will leak to Michael Creed, his FG running mate, who has strong family links to the town.
There’s no Sinn Féin candidate in this year’s election which leaves Nigel Dennehy’s 3,238 total with no likely home. Given that Aontú is a party founded by Peadar Tóibín who left SF in acrimony over a disagreement regarding the party’s stance on abortion and his statements in this election haven’t tended to improve relations, these votes will be to play for.
There’s no natural home either for the 2,159 preferences gained by Diarmuid O’Flynn of the Ballyhea Protesters though they may tend to go to left wing candidates such as the Social Democrat, Ciaran McCarthy.
The votes of Jason Fitzgerald who stood for Renua, all 1,568 of them, should go home to the centre right parties of Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael while it’s anyone’s guess where the votes of Stephen O’Riordan, a total of 1,361, will end up.
Having said all that candidates would be foolish to count votes cast in 2016 before they’re cast in 2020. The electorate has demonstrated how fickle its support or lack of support is for the differing parties on a number of occasions since 2016.
Nevertheless, voters have in the past tended to follow set patterns and Cork North West hasn’t been noted as a constituency which has demonstrated massive and radical changes in personnel.