If Brexit does happen, EU is to blame too
ON Thursday, the voters of the United Kingdom will decide the fate of the European Union. The referendum on whether Britain should remain or leave teeters in the balance.
It leaves not just Britain but all of Europe, and especially Ireland, in the thick of a monumental contest about our collective futures. Unfortunately, too much of the campaign – just as in the American election campaign with the unpleasant demagoguery of Donald Trump – has been conducted in a febrile atmosphere of emotion.
A match has been lit and reason consigned to the bonfire of prejudice, mutual spite and downright despotism. For those old enough to remember, the resonance with our own referendums on abortion and divorce is all too familiar.
This weekend, the truly shocking murder of Labour MP Jo Cox has stilled some of the sound and fury of the campaign.
Of course, nobody knows the motives of her killer, his state of mind and whether his links to far right groups were a result of mental illness. But when political debate is conducted in a highly charged atmosphere of personal attacks, hatred and covert (and even overt) racism, those with murkier motives seize their day. We have seen that here in the recent past with the hijacking of the water charge protests by less-than-savoury elements.
For us, the preferred outcome is a simple one. We would like the UK to stay in. Our neighbours are our biggest trading partner. We do not want to become an island nation on the outer edge of mainland Europe separated by a country bristling with a sense of post-Brexit self justification and self-interest, determined to go it alone and best Europe whatever the consequences.
We do not want to have to restore a hard border between ourselves and the North, to waste effort pointlessly renegotiating the minutiae of thousands of trade deals with our single largest economic ally.
Leaving the EU may well make the UK more prosperous. But the very real likelihood is that it will not. By any calculation, a United Kingdom which left all the structures, markets, restrictions and protections and rules of the European Union would be bound to face higher tariffs, turmoil in the financial markets and a period of economic uncertainty.
Britain would be compelled to stand and fight alone for its existence in a hard, globalised world where those who cannot survive on their wits quickly fall behind.
In this country, we know all about isolationism, and the moribund years of de Valera’s vain attempt at self-sufficiency. That did not work in the Thirties and it won’t work for Britain now.
At the same time, if Brexit happens, Brussels must share in the blame. The European elite has, at its heart, a democratic deficit unpalatable to many.
No one knows this better than the Irish, cowed into submission by the EU, the European Central Bank and the IMF, and lumbered with debt that emanated principally from Germany. If the UK vote is for Leave, not just Ireland but the entire EU will suffer an existential shock. If it is for Remain, the Brussels panjandrums should take no comfort from that. It cannot be a case of the usual sclerotic status quo. We hope the UK votes Remain. And if it does, the EU must realise that a close shave is not a victory. It must be the start of radical change.