How do you break Dublin's 18-month winning streak?
EAMONN FITZMAURICE won’t need reminding of the first time that he tried to outwit Jim Gavin on the sideline. The previous evening, the new Kerry manager had been part of a Finuge team that were beaten by Cookstown in the All-Ireland club intermediate final in Croke Park. Dublin compounded a miserable weekend for Fitzmaurice as they won by 10 points in Killarney, Kerry only scoring four points in the entire game.
Faces have changed. Tomás Ó Sé and Declan O’Sullivan both played that day for Kerry, Ger Brennan and Rory O’Carroll were part of the Dublin defence. But the theme of this rivalry is the same. The Dubs have dominated The Kingdom in the respective reigns of these two respected managers.
This afternoon will be the eighth time that Kerry and Dublin have met during Fitzmaurice and Gavin’s time at their counties’ helm. The Kingdom have won only one of the previous seven meetings – but at least that places the Kerry boss in elite company among his inter-county management fraternity, He is one of only five men who have figured out a way to defeat Dublin since Gavin became the Blues’ boss. Jim McGuinness, Brian Cuthbert, Mickey Harte and Brian McIver are the others.
Today will be the 60th competitive match for which Gavin has taken charge. Dublin have lost only six of the previous 59. In that time, they have lost only once in the Championship – Donegal’s famous semi-final ambush of 2014. All the other defeats have come in the National League when the Dublin players were still wiping winter’s sleep from their eyes.
Earlier this year, it was suggested that St Patrick’s Day acts as a sort of switch for Gavin and his side. They have only lost one game after the National holiday in his four seasons in charge – that 2014 semi-final.
If such a thing as a bogey team exists for a side with such a remarkable record, perhaps it is Cork as they are the only side to beat Dublin twice during Gavin’s time – in League matches in 2014 and 2015.
The Rebels managed to keep Dublin goalless on both occasions, while scoring a goal themselves – as Derry did in a 2014 League game and Donegal in the semi-final later the same year. Keeping a clean sheet is vital to beating Dublin although Kerry will reflect that it didn’t help them last September.
But they failed to score a goal in four of the six games they have lost under Gavin, while their opponents have raised, at least, one green flag. Of course, in a sign of how Dublin have developed, they have been able to win games without goals – which had been the lifeblood of their teams in the past. Meath managed to keep a clean sheet this summer and still lost by 10 points.
In the two games Dublin have lost since the Donegal reversal, one common thread is that Stephen Cluxton has been absent. He has missed four of the six games that Gavin’s Dublin have lost, an illustration of how important the 34-year-old captain is to this Dublin machine. He plays his 83rd Championship game today, and has missed only one since establishing himself as the regular custodian back in 2002 – that was when he was suspended for the 2004 Leinster Championship match with Westmeath, which Dublin lost. He has kept 47 clean sheets in 82 games and conceded just 49 goals. It’s a staggering record. It’s almost impossible to quantify Cluxton’s influence on his team and a line has even been drawn between the goalkeeper berating his team-mates and Gavin taking action on the bench.
One of Kerry’s primary tactics this afternoon will be getting inside Cluxton’s head and hoping to scramble his kick-out strategy.
When Kerry beat Dublin in a League encounter in March of last year (Dublin’s last defeat), it was a snarling, spiteful match that had a raft of cards. Cluxton was absent in that game while Cian O’Sullivan only came off the bench when Denis Bastick received a black card. Neutralising Cluxton and O’Sullivan is key to any chance of a Kerry victory.
However, they may also need to be ahead by a few points when the game enters the final 10 minutes. Against Donegal, Dublin scored 1-2 in the closing stages. Against Westmeath in the Leinster final, they scored 2-2 in the final 12 minutes. Even going back to the League final in April, the Dubs finished very strongly, scoring 2-3 in the last 10 minutes.
Dublin’s strong finish is always put down to their options on the bench, but it also has to do with their conditioning.
Keep a clean sheet while also raising a few green flags, neutralise Cluxton and Cian O’Sullivan and be in a sizeable lead going into the final 10 minutes.
That appears to be the formula for being the first team to beat Dublin since March of last year. Sounds simple, doesn’t it?
Today will be Gavin’s 60th competitive match in charge