LIONS WITH IT ALL TO LOSE
It is the great debate that will dominate the Six Nations – who will start the Lions first Test against New Zealand in June?
THE Six Nations stands alone as the most established, tribal and colourful tournament in world rugby but, in Lions years, there is an extra layer of anticipation and intrigue.
Particularly when the summer touring destination is New Zealand, where the Lions have not recorded a series win in the last 46 years, and especially when November’s report card suggests the gap between hemispheres is tightening – underscored by Ireland’s historic victory over the All Blacks in Chicago.
From now until the conclusion of the threeTest contest on July 8, Lions debates will pepper the majority of rugby conversations, with names flung in and withdrawn as each week alters the selection landscape.
While the European club season runs right up until the seven-week expedition begins at the end of May, the most relevant audition stage will be the Six Nations – for it is in the heat of competitive Test match rugby that players will be chiefly assessed by Lions head coach Warren Gatland and his management team.
And, while the participation of certain individuals looks set in stone heading into the tournament, there is no question the Lions landscape will have altered when it all concludes in Dublin on March 18, following Ireland’s potential Grand Slam-deciding clash with England.
Here’s how we see the Lions shaping up as it stands and how the vista might change during the Six Nations.
A lot to gain and a hell of a lot to lose... 15 LEIGH HALFPENNY WALES Player of the series four years ago, Halfpenny has credit in the bank, plus the trust of Gatland. If his place-kicking stats hit their usual high this Six Nations, he will be hard to dislodge but needs a big tournament after injury issues. Closest challenger: Stuart Hogg (Scotland) – lethal runner who could excel with more possession than he gets with Scotland. 14 GEORGE NORTH WALES Another 2013 star desperate to prove himself after consistent injury problems. Gatland would love to unleash him on the All Blacks but North first needs to prove he is back fit and firing.
Closest challenger: Anthony Watson (England) – Out and out speedster, with size and strike-rate to match. 13 GARRY RINGROSE IRELAND Ringrose is ready to light up the Six Nations and is rapidly developing the physical maturity to go with his sublime attacking talents.
Closest challenger: Jon Davies (Wales) – His defence is superior to England’s Jonathan Joseph. 12 ROBBIE HENSHAW IRELAND His performance against New Zealand in Chicago provides a powerful argument, as does evidence of a flourishing relationship with Ringrose.
Closest challenger: Owen Farrell (England) – If Halfpenny doesn’t make it, the consistent Farrell is a guaranteed starter for his place-kicking. 11 TOMMY SEYMOUR SCOTLAND In the form of his career, Seymour has developed a superb all-round game to go with a voracious appetite for tries.
Closest challenger: Simon Zebo (Ireland) – Brings a touch of unpredictable magic which Gatland may view as more valuable off the bench. 10 JOHNNY SEXTON IRELAND All things equal, Sexton starts, no debate. Gatland knows he’s the most complete out-half available but Sexton needs to complete the Six Nations with no question marks over his durability.
Closest challenger: Owen Farrell (England) – Again, hinges on Halfpenny, Farrell lacks Sexton’s running game but would let no-one down at 10. 9 CONOR MURRAY IRELAND A rallying figure for forwards and backs, Murray is world rugby’s form scrum-half. It is impossible to see him having a poor Six Nations, even in the face of guaranteed targeting by opposition back rows.
Closest challenger: Ben Youngs (England) - Phenomenal breaker who had a huge November but being caught up in Leicester’s woe put him behind Murray. 1 MAKO VUNIPOLA ENGLAND With more than enough time to recover from injury, Gatland knows Vunipola’s cartoon strength on the charge could be a decisive weapon against the All Blacks – scrummaging has come on hugely.
Closest challenger: Jack McGrath (Ireland) - Not as destructive as Vunipola with ball in hand but consistently excellent in all areas. 2 RORY BEST IRELAND, CAPT Has bad memories from four years ago – but if Best can replicate his November form in leading Ireland to a successful Six Nations he will deserve to be nailed on as hooker and captain.
Closest challenger: Jamie George (England) - Quality player, better than Dylan Hartley with none of the baggage. If Gatland opts for Alun-Wyn Jones as captain, George would be hard to omit. 3 TADGH FURLONG IRELAND Tipped by Mike Ross as his natural successor a few years ago but few predicted how stunningly Furlong would take to the international stage. His displays against New Zealand in November make Furlong the front-runner, once his Six Nations matches the standards set. Closest challenger: Dan Cole (England) –
Gnarly experience will be invaluable in New Zealand but needs to reassert himself after being tainted by Leicester implosion.
4 MARO ITOJE ENGLAND The finest athlete available to either side this summer, Itoje simply has to make the Test side and using him at second row would most discomfit the All Blacks.
Closest challenger: Courtney Lawes (England) – If Wales have a decent Six Nations, Gatland is likely to go with Alun-Wyn Jones as captain but, on the assumption the Welsh will be hit and miss and Best is captain, Lawes offers extra dynamism, size and edge. 5 JOE LAUNCHBURY ENGLAND Provides the level of ceaseless toil essential to challenge the All Blacks and would allow Itoje to flourish. Should be captaining England instead of Hartley.
Closest challenger: Richie Gray (Scotland) – The 6ft 9in Scot offers lineout security as well as compelling forcefulness at every point of contact. 6 PETER O’MAHONY IRELAND The Lions will not beat New Zealand without proper dog in the pack and O’Mahony gives them snarl in spades. The problem is CJ Stander preventing O’Mahony getting a regular start in the Irish backrow to prove his Lions credentials. Cameos won’t do it. Closest challenger: Iain Henderson (Ireland) – A beacon of blindside belligerence during Ulster’s limp season. 7 JUSTIN TIPURIC WALES The best out-and-out openside in European rugby, with the stats to back it up (109 tackles attempted in the Pro12 this season, none missed), Tipuric is the best bet for winning the breakdown turnovers that will define the Lions’ challenge this summer. Closest challenger: Josh van der Flier (Ireland) – Ongoing injury doubt has clouded Sean O’Brien’s candidacy and Van der Flier’s openside skills will a stand to him for a series where the breakdown will be key. 8 BILLY VUNIPOLA ENGLAND Confident of making it back in time to mount his Six Nations case for a Lions Test place and, if that happens, he is just the type of wrecking ball Gatland needs to put the Kiwis on the back foot.
Closest challenger: CJ Stander (Ireland) – Plays No 6 for Ireland but the South African’s Vunipolaesque running game is best suited to the middle of the back row. ... and one from left field STUART MCCLOSKEY IRELAND Gatland is partial to a big, bruising inside centre with off-loading skills in the Jamie Roberts mould. McCloskey fits the bill and has managed to maintain a rich vein of form as Ulster’s season has come apart. Unlikely to start in the Ireland midfield for the Six Nations but it’s a long tournament and, if he adds to his solitary cap, the summer could open up for him.