LEINSTER vs MUNSTER
Team Leo focus on failure by Coveney to win enough seats in heartland
TEAM LEO has struck back in the Fine Gael leadership race by attacking main rival Simon Coveney’s electoral skills.
The Social Protection Minister’s supporters are upset at briefings about his alleged disloyalty to Enda Kenny – and a series of headlines about his private life this week.
Once Enda Kenny signalled an intention to address the leadership after mid-March, TDs’ minds have been focused on which contender would be best placed to help them win their seats, so Mr Varadkar’s supporters have attempted to strike at what they see as Coveney’s biggest flaw – his inability to get TDs in his region re-elected. Mr Coveney is the senior Fine Gael TD for Cork South Central, and he was delegated by the Taoiseach to deliver Munster for the party during the last general election, but results down south were very poor, while they did very well in Mr Varadkar’s stronghold of Dublin. One deputy said: ‘TDs will vote for the man who offers the best chance of retaining their seat. It is as simple and as stark as that. And Leo offers the best chance. He is better known than Simon, more media friendly.’
With various figures being bandied about, the Irish Mail on Sunday sat with senior campaign chiefs in both camps to go through the numbers.
The Varadkar camp put the split among the 73 parliamentary party members at 35:25 to their man, with question marks over 13. The Coveney camp said it was 37 to 32 to their man, with four too difficult to call.
With nobody quite sure how power brokers like Finance Minister Michael Noonan or Public Expenditure Minister Paschal Donohoe are going to vote there is a bit to go yet.
But the figures that don’t lie are those around the party’s performance in Munster in Election 2016.
The worst blow came in Tipperary, known as a Fine Gael bellwether constituency. The county which is full of large farms and traditional Fine Gael heartland has ended up with no party representative for the first time in the history of the state, even though it is a five-seater. The wipeout, was an extraordinarily savage psychological blow to the party. Dáil veterans Tom Hayes and Noel J Coogan lost seats, as did running mate Marie Murphy. And in a further kick in the teeth, former Fine Gael minister Michael Lowry was re-elected with a huge vote.
In Cork East, Fine Gael strategists had optimistically predicted they would end up with three out of the four seats. In the election, despite a 28.47% share of the vote, and a 1.43 quota, Tom Barry and Noel McCarthy lost out, while David Stanton kept his seat, making it only one for the party.
In Cork North Central, another four-seater, the party took 17.8% of the vote but only Kenny loyalist Dara Murphy retained his seat while party colleague Julie O’Leary lost.
In Cork North West, a three-seater, the party won a sizeable 32.17% of the vote but still lost a seat. Michael Creed, who was ultimately promoted to Cabinet retained his seat, but running mate Áine Collins lost out. Indeed, Mr Creed a known opponent of Mr Kenny benefited from the fact that there were so few senior politicians in Munster from which to choose a Cabinet appointee.
In Cork South Central, Mr Coveney’s home base, touted as a ‘group of death’ constituency after being cut from a five-seater to four, Fine Gael won 25.83% of the vote but high-profile Jerry Buttimer lost his seat. Fianna Fáil heavyweights Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath were both elected, and Mr Coveney got the last seat in a significant blow to his prestige.
In Cork South West, a three-seater, Fine Gael again got a pretty good share, 31.91%, but lost a seat. Anti-Kennyite Jim Daly won, but running mate Noel Harrington lost out. There was good news in Clare, where Joe Carey and Pat Breen retained their seats.
In Kerry another seat was lost. Brendan Griffin retained his seat but former Minister and close friend of the Taoiseach Jimmy Deenihan lost out as did Grace O’Donnell.
Two seats were kept in Limerick County where Patrick O’Donovan retained his seat and Tom Neville was elected for the first time. But in Limerick City while Finance Minister Michael Noonan kept his seat, running mate Kieran O’Donnell lost out. Another seat gone.
It was the same story in Waterford, where John Deasy retained his seat but running mate Paudie Coffey lost.
On top of this, Mr Coveney has problems with some of those who were elected in Munster. He and Agriculture Minister Michael Creed are rivals and Mr Creed is not believed to be ready to support him. MEP Deirdre Clune, who will vote in the parliamentary party, is a member of the Peter Barry political dynasty and is another rival of Coveney’s, while West Cork’s Jim Daly is
In 5-seat Tipperary FG has no TD for first time ever
believed to be a Varadkar supporter. One party TD said: ‘Most people accept Leo gives us a better chance to win the next election. One senator had a meeting during the week and it was 3:1 Varadkar. I had a meeting it was 2:1. That’s how it’s going to go.’ The result to be decided by an electoral college that gives 65% of voting weight to the parliamentary party, 25% to rank-and-file members and 10% to councillors. It will be the first time the leader is elected in such a fashion. Previously, it was a matter only for the parliamentary party. Yet TDs, senators and MEPs still hold the real power. There are 73 members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party: 50 TDs, 19 senators and four MEPs. Each member of the parliamentary party therefore counts for roughly 0.9% of the entire electorate, and so each candidate will have to try to nail down as many of them as possible.