THE CRISES THAT HAVE WOUNDED ...AND THOSE DOWN THE LINE THAT WILL HURT EVEN MORE

AS THE political system fights to avoid what surely would be the most accidental election in the history of this State, amid all of the hysteria and murk, one thing is clear: despite the outwardly sleepy nature of ‘new politics’ this is the most crisisridden administration since the ill-fated Haughey experiments of the 1980s. Here JOHN DRENNAN lists the five gravest crises to hit this administration to date and, more chillingly for the Coalition, gazes into his crystal ball to outline the most likely crises lying in wait to ambush them… WATER: THE END OF THE BEGINNING What happened: From the start, water and how to get out of trouble has been the Achilles heel of the confidence and supply arrangement. During its initial weeks the Government’s future looked deeply uncertain as Barry Cowen took the hardline stance that charges were ‘dead and won’t be returning’. Simon Coveney, by contrast, looked weak as he tried to find political cover that would protect us from the wrath of the Eurocrats and their ‘polluter pays’ principle by imposing some form of charging scheme that wouldn’t charge anyone. Outcome: The political Molotov cocktail was thrown over the hedge via an expert report and the Oireachtas Committee in the hope that something better might turn up. It hasn’t and the failure to solve the fault-lines between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael has turned into a political sword of Damocles. CRISIS RICHTER SCALE

WATERFORD CATH LAB: JOHN HALLIGAN GOES WALKABOUT

What happened: It seemed serious at the time as John Halligan threatened to rain hellfire upon the Taoiseach and the Government over its failure to deliver on a nod and wink style promise of a cath lab for Waterford.

This was followed by much fulmination and pirouetting on the plinth by Mr Halligan and grave faces among the ranks of the Independent Alliance.

Outcome: The whole thing was scuppered upon the production, by then health Superman Simon Harris, of a contested consultant’s report saying a cath lab wasn’t needed. Eventually, the crisis drowned, thanks to a lack of political oxygen and the policy of keeping Mr Halligan out of the country as much as possible. CRISIS RICHTER SCALE

RENT: SOWING THE SEEDS OF FUTURE TROUBLES

What happened: Why is it always Simon Coveney and Barry Cowen? Whatever the reason, the feud between the Dynastic Duo intensified when in a most unwanted Christmas present, Fianna Fáil, or rather Mr Cowen, refused to back Mr Coveney’s key reforms of the Irish rental market.

Mr Cowen demanded, as the price of FF’s support, a halving of the rent cap of 4% and the extension of the awkwardly named rent protection zones beyond the original areas in Dublin and Cork.

Outcome: More seeds sown in the field of future troubles as Mr Coveney dug his heels in and accused Mr Cowen of messing with people’s lives for political advantage. Mr Coveney said no, Mr Cowen backed down and as FG back-benchers claimed Coveney had KO’d Cowen, prescient observers warned there would be a reckoning over this. CRISIS RICHTER SCALE 3/5

McCABE: BLOWS THE WHISTLE ON COALITION

What happened: Chaos surrounded the setting up of the inquiry into the handling of allegations of a smear campaign against Garda Sergeant Maurice McCabe as the Taoiseach was forced to admit he had made up stories, while Frances Fitzgerald’s grasp of the importance of the Tusla revelations was revealed to be utterly deficient.

Outcome: Victory for Sgt McCabe on the setting up of a tribunal. The Cabinet was shown to be utterly dysfunctional and the debacle hastened the beginning of Mr Kenny’s long goodbye. No mortal wound inflicted but it was a close-run thing. CRISIS RICHTER SCALE 5/5

COWEN AND COVENEY II: THE REMATCH

What happened: The modern equivalent of the feud between the Montagues and the Capulets flared up once more this week when Mr Cowen and Mr Coveney squared up over the long-running saga of Irish Water. Many of us were reminded of the words of Albert Reynolds when he resigned as taoiseach in 1994, ‘You know, it is amazing that you can cross all the large hurdles, but it’s the small ones that trip you up.’

Outcome: Some form of unconvincing deal is likely to be cooked up over the next few days to at least get us as far as Easter whereupon a more leisurely autopsy can be carried out on the Frankenstein. But, even if the Government gets over this, it will be a case of ‘water hasn’t gone away, you know’. CRISIS RICHTER SCALE 4/5

THE DEBACLES THAT HAVE DOGGED THE GOVERNMENT