HIGH STAKES, NO EXCUSES
Ireland ripe for Cardiff ambush unless they cut down on errors
IT used to be so simple. Two more wins and Ireland, currently +29 better off than England, would likely be champions on points difference if both finish on four wins apiece. Now you can’t be so certain with the bonus point system upsetting the old-style arithmetic if it should come down to the final day head to head with England, currently leading the way with three wins to Ireland’s two.
How annoying would it be if the defending champions held onto their trophy by snatching a losing bonus point in Dublin?
However, dwelling on potential fifth round permutations is wasted energy as Ireland must head to Cardiff and keep Wales on the canvas as the English host a Scottish side dreaming of a first Triple Crown since 1990.
Defeat on Friday for Ireland would open the door for England to seal the title the following day in London with a game to spare. High stakes then.
We figured Ireland would be in the honours shake-up heading into March. Just not with their backs slung so tightly to the wall.
The prediction on these pages was for Joe Schmidt’s side to win its first three, run into trouble against the struggling Welsh – whom we slated pre-tournament for a fifth-place finish – but still have the savvy to rectify the situation the following weekend and beat England to win a third championship in four seasons.
Now, having lost to the Scots in the opening round, no such margin for error exists and the task of having to win four games on the bounce, something not done since their World Cup 2015 pool, is the bare necessity if rugby supporters are going to have double reason to celebrate over St Patrick’s weekend.
Ireland’s win over France was a curate’s egg. No victory over the French should ever be taken for granted, so damaging a rival have they been to Irish prospects in the professional era and long before.
However, the fact the Lansdowne Road atmosphere was muted in acclaiming the victory told you two things...
One, confused France really are stagnant with a poor technique and going nowhere fast.
Two, Ireland’s dominance should have harvested more than a 10-point winning margin. The hosts should never have been threatened by the French getting the gap back to seven with six minutes to go via foul play from an engine-room talisman, Devin Toner, who shouldn’t be getting caught up in an off-the-ball altercation.
As it stands, we still can’t be fully sure that this Irish team can complete the job and finish top of the pile in a fortnight. As much as there is optimism that they are bubbling under, that the Johnny Sexton-wraparound approach is ready to help consign a run of inconsistency since October 2015 to the past. In that time, Ireland have won just eight of 16 matches as they struggle to turn copious pressure in the opposition 22 into sufficient scores. First-half failures ultimately left them with too much to do to edge the result in Scotland and they were fortunate to be a point ahead at the break in Dublin last weekend, having fallen six behind while also failing to take chances.
An example was their maul. Thirteen times over the course of the contest they hunkered down after the lineout catch to drive forward and while they made some hard yards further out the field where the level of anxiousness at the engagement would have been less, they knocked the ball on deep in the 22. With Sean O’Brien mauling from a penalty lineout at 0-6, an error followed by Jack McGrath’s subsequent scrum penalty which completed a gifted escape for the French.
Ireland also got stuck at the ruck eight days ago, Accenture statistics highlighting how they lost eight to France’s one, a problem that can’t be repeated in Cardiff.
It was away to Wales in round four two years ago – with a Grand Slam still on the line – where they suffered one of the most deflating defeats of the Schmidt era, a dozen penalty points down in about as many minutes after Wayne Barnes repeatedly punished at the breakdown.
The same referee is set to be charge again provided the personal reasons, which forced his eleventhhour withdrawal from assistant’s duty last weekend, don’t threaten
his availability and it will be interesting to see how Ireland cope with Jared Payne potentially reinstated at midfield.
Their first two penalties conceded against France were for off-feet infringements by Keith Earls and Jamie Heaslip, and two other ruck penalties for not releasing ensued. Ireland’s remaining concessions were two at the scrum, one for offside and the last for Toner’s show of temper.
Eight concessions, though, was still a decent return compared to Wales who coughed up eight alone in the second half of their dispiriting defeat at Scotland. Their a 13-9 interval lead was frittered away in an error-strewn second half where they lacked leadership and were held scoreless en route to a 16-point reverse.
There were three penalties for no release, two for obstruction and others for off-feet, tip tackling and a NEXT Friday: Wales v Ireland (8.05pm); Saturday: Italy v France (1.30pm), England v Scotland (4.0pm). scrum collapse.
That all-round type of rap sheet augers well for Ireland provided the unusual 8.05pm Test match kick-off time isn’t a draining distraction that prevents them making the confident start to leave wounded Wales further doubting themselves, having lost back-to-back Six Nations matches for the first time in seven years.
High stakes. Big rewards. No excuses. Ireland must cash in.
France are going nowhere fast, they should have been beaten by more