IRELAND HAVE BEEN RUMBLED
TO where from here is the most pertinent question now. There is a context in which to analyse Ireland over the past 12 months – and over that spread of time the warning lights have flickered consistently. Wonderful autumn wins over New Zealand and Australia, and a victory in South Africa in June, tended to dominate the 2016 picture, certainly as painted by team sponsors and documentary-makers. And many of us in the media have been guilty of letting those wins, and in particular the one in Chicago against the All Blacks, consume the story of the last year.
Reassessment is needed now, and the evidence it yields is of a team prey too often to middling form.
Last year’s championship was undistinguished, from a winning advantage conceded against Wales, an unimaginative loss to France, a sound beating from England, to a shaky closing win against the Scots.
This time around, the worry is that Wales unpicked Ireland adhering to tactics that closely resembled those employed by Scotland in Murrayfield. They cut down Ireland’s back-row ball carriers, knowing they were Ireland’s primary source of momentum.
Then they trusted that they would be able to handle the narrow focus of Ireland’s consequent attacking efforts. It worked perfectly for the Welsh, as they have been keen to point out since.
What it means for Ireland is a significant challenge for Joe Schmidt. He has to dream it all up again, because on the gathering evidence, Ireland have been worked out.
It is not enough to argue that if Johnny Sexton hadn’t been shown a yellow card it would have been different, or had Conor Murray not injured his arm it would have worked out another way.
‘If’ is a word as powerless in sport as it is in life. Injuries happen. Players are forced to make decisions that carry a disciplinary cost. The best teams absorb these mishaps and still find a way.
And Ireland, consistently, have been unable to do that.
They figured out New Zealand, and they survived against Australia, but these victories, for all the merit they must attract, increasingly stand isolated, like white cows strayed across a bog.
Ireland’s week-to-week form in the Six Nations points to chronic problems with not merely consistency but also creativity. Leadership should now be a worry, too, because the decision-making all spring has been worrisome, especially when deciding whether to kick penalties or chase tries.
In a misguided spirit of adventure, they have been chasing fivepointers, but when this doesn’t come off – and it invariably doesn’t – there is a price to pay.
‘Those days are over,’ said Ronan O’Gara on Friday night, pointing out that Test matches are not won with nine points in this day and age. That is true, but Ireland are eschewing three-pointers in what often looks like a panicky pursuit of the bigger prize.
They suffer on the double when neither comes off. That speaks to poor decision-making.
The potential within the side is enormous. The excellence of Sexton and Murray is not disputed, with even the most one-eyed Welsh supporters agreeing they are the probable Lions half backs.
Allowing for Friday’s discomfort, Jack McGrath and Tadhg Furlong should be rated highly, and Garry Ringrose has the ability to thrill from outside centre.
However, a prescriptive approach is not paying off consistently enough, and that is what Schmidt must address.
There has been some astonishing if inevitable crowing about his failings, as if everything he achieved at Leinster and two championships with Ireland were lucky breaks. That is dim-wittedness or begrudgery.
Yet he is faced with an interesting problem now. In common with most elite coaches he exerts a high degree of control, but the search for alternative plans of attack should consume him now.
He has already talked up the challenge of England in Dublin on Saturday, and it is a theme his players will pursue all next week as well.
Sure, it’s England, but wasn’t it nice when we played England as equals, rather than as plucky Robin Hoods whose arrows flew for half an hour before we ended up in a heap and they ended up with a cricket score?
Ireland haven’t regressed to that time, but England under Eddie Jones have introduced new standards to the championship, and for two seasons Ireland have not been able to match them.
That is a fact that should inspire ambitious players and coaches, and it better had, because this is a young England side with a ruthless, mouthy but brilliant coach.
The 2019 World Cup has been their lodestar since Jones took over. Every turn they make is directed towards that end.
Now would be a good time for Ireland to follow their maps. Talent abounds, and most of the players will be around come 2019. Whether they all should be is another matter, and in the short term it would be encouraging to see Schmidt make changes for next week.
The return of Peter O’Mahony at the expense of Sean O’Brien seems an obvious one, and given Sexton’s latest battle, a start for Paddy Jackson could be in order, too.
Choices assail Joe Schmidt – but the most important is the one he makes on the next turn his team takes.