Weakened Putin’s last great bluff
VLADIMIR PUTIN’S threats to block further US attacks on Syria have been dismissed as a bluff by military experts.
The Russian president has been talking tough since Donald Trump’s strike on an airfield used by Syrian forces to launch jets which dropped chemical weapons on a village, killing more than 70 civilians.
President Putin has vowed to bolster Syria’s air defences and close down a hotline designed to avoid mid-air collisions between jets, including RAF aircraft and Syrian and Russian planes.
He has also dispatched a warship to patrol Syria’s coastline and thwart further US action.
But senior defence analysts told the MoS last night that President Putin was actually desperate to avoid a clash with the US and wanted to cut a deal to end the sixyear Syrian civil war which has cost more than 400,000 lives.
Igor Sutyagin from the Royal United Services Institute said last night: ‘Putin is raising the stakes but he is bluffing, because he knows he cannot do anything militarily to cause a direct confrontation with the US.
‘He wants the US to blink first, while knowing he doesn’t have the resources to withstand any confrontation with the US and its allies – militarily Russia is much weaker.
‘The Syrian conflict is also becoming embarrassing for Putin.
‘So he is not going to defend the Syrian president at Russia’s expense. Putin will stand by Russian interests in Syria but not necessarily by Assad.’
Experts also cast doubt over the president’s pledge to upgrade Syria’s air missile batteries, which could be used to intercept Tomahawk cruise missiles, and the Kremlin’s intention to suspend its co-operation over so-called aerial deconfliction measures which allow Russia and the US to avoid clashes.
All 59 US Tomahawk missiles fired from the USS Ross and USS Porter in the Mediterranean slipped through Syria’s primitive S-300 defence system on their way to the al-Shayrat military airfield near Homs on Friday morning.
The Russians have an updated version of the defence system, the S-400, which is deployed near its naval base at Latakia on Syria’s northern coastline. But Syrian personnel have not been trained to use it, according to Russian military expert Jonathan Eyal.
He said last night: ‘While Russia could supply this equipment, the snag for President Putin is that this option would require putting Russian personnel directly in the Americans’ line of fire.
‘This would represent a major escalation of the conflict and I don’t believe he wants that.’
Mr Eyal added that Russia would find ways to continue its agreement with the US which ensures its aircraft don’t collide over Syria.
He said: ‘Putin is bluffing when he says he’s pulling out of this. Russia doesn’t want an accidental collision with the US any more than it wants a deliberate clash.
‘Putin is being typically macho and the introduction of the US as a major actor in Syria is a direct challenge to his authority, but he knows he will lose if there is a one-to-one confrontation. So he will ensure it doesn’t happen.’
Former British Army commander Colonel Richard Kemp agreed, saying: ‘The pledge to pull out of the deconfliction agreement is just big talk intended for public consumption.
‘The airspace over Syria is very busy, so I am certain that some cooperation will continue.’