Why Trump is already on course to win second term
DONALD TRUMP would have beaten Hillary Clinton again, by three percentage points, if the US Presidential election had been rerun last week. His 43% to 40% lead over his Democrat opponent in a Washington Post/ABC News poll appeared to contradict others polls last week. They showed Trump to be the most unpopular US President since ratings for their first 100 days began in the 1930s.
Yet the Washington Post/ABC poll says more about her than him: 96% of those who voted for Trump last November said they would vote for him again, but only 85% of Clinton’s voters would repeat last year’s decision.
President Trump is rude, crude and his public utterances are too often like an adolescent skateboarder thinking aloud. He embarrasses and alarms many Americans while the rest of the world quivers at his impulsiveness.
He is the most deeply divisive political leader in modern American history.
But his 85% approval among Republicans is up with the venerated Ronald Reagan. And if the US economy continues to soar, it explains why Trump is 6/4 favourite with the bookies to be re-elected in 2020.
Republicans have rarely had it better: their man is in the White House and they have majorities in the Senate and House of Representatives. But they are apprehensive about next year’s mid-term elections when they could lose control of the House of Representatives.
His style of running the US as if it were a family business – with his daughter and son-in-law his most influential advisers – horrifies the political caste at home and abroad.
Those who assumed his bombast as a candidate would be tempered by the responsibilities of the presidency are worried by the continuing chaos in the White House.
He ignores charges of cant and dishonesty and continues to do the opposite of what he promised as a candidate. Not always a bad thing.
For instance, he lambasted his predecessor Barack Obama for playing golf when he should have been working in the White House – but he has spent 18 days on the golf course since his inauguration in January.
His first 100 days has been a daily disappointment in delivering on his campaign promises:
LEGISLATION
Reforming Obamacare failed at his first attempt and there is real concern about healthcare among the disillusioned working class who secured his victory in the Rust Belt. His executive order banning Muslim immigrants is tied up in the courts. And the plan for a border wall paid for by Mexico is stalled. He has used executive orders as a substitute for legislation, more than any other president since Truman.
Yet his base supporters are blaming the Republican-led Congress for frustrating his legislative agenda.
SCANDAL
No new administration has been so dogged by scandal so soon in living memory. Mike Flynn, Trump’s choice as national security adviser, was sacked for lying after only 24 days in the job. Russian interference in the presidential election and their links to many of senior Trump advisers is under investigation. And his man-crush on Vladimir Putin showed seriously flawed judgment.
Allegations of clandestine Russian influence are probably the biggest threat to the administration right now.
FOREIGN POLICY
Trump declared Nato obsolete then changed his mind and praised it. He called China a currency manipulator, withdrew the charge and is cooperating with them on North Korea. He campaigned as a protectionist offending Canada then suspended his threat to rip up the trade deal. British PM Theresa May was the first foreign leader to meet him and he was an avid supporter of Brexit – but then he promised to settle a trade deal with the EU before Britain. He continues to ignore then insult Mexico.
He confuses everyone, maybe even himself. Is he an isolationist? No. His popularity ratings rose when he bombed Syria after Assad dropped nerve gas on civilians.
STAFFING THE GOVERNMENT
In his first 100 days, he has nominated just 58 key figures who require Senate approval – in the same period Obama had nominated 190. The State Department, like the Council of Economic Advisers, is grossly understaffed.
But the most important team – James Mattis at the Pentagon, H.R. McMaster as national security adviser and Rex Tillerson at the State department – are respected and trusted professionals.
ECONOMY AND TAXATION
The Trump Bump, whereby financial markets continue to soar alongside hikes in business and consumer confidence, is a spectacular and unexpected success
His promise to reduce the US corporate tax rate from 35 to 15% is a hasty bid for glory – an attempt to deflect attention from his many failures.
But it also threatens to hike borrowing, balloon the deficit and trigger a recession; that terrifies foreign leaders and worries as nearly as many Republicans as it thrills big business.
Democrats will continue to fear and denigrate Trump over his contempt for the environment and trade unions while he worships Wall Street. But they also need to examine their own shortcomings: if Trump is such a boorish chump, how did he defeat the Democrats’ gilded candidate Hillary Clinton?
Although Trump is lampooned and lambasted here, he gave the Irish delegation their warmest welcome ever to the White House and even access to the Oval Office on their recent visit on St Patrick’s Day.
He does have a substantial business interest, here plus three of his closest aides in the West Wing are tricolour-waving Irish.
By definition it is tough love, but only a fool would forget that President Trump is the most powerful man on Earth.