Coveney’s comeback kiboshed

Underdog’ s‘ grass roots revolt’ falls flat as 111 councillors vow to support Varadkar

‘The second electoral college is now in the bag’

THE so-called ‘Coveney Comeback’ has fallen at the first hurdle as initial declarations of support indicate that Leo Varadkar is on course to secure a two-to-one winning margin among Fine Gael councillors.

After being routed in the parliamentary party, Mr Coveney has staked everything on leading a ‘grassroots revolt’ of councillors. His supporters claimed: ‘While Leo has won the air war, we will win the ground war.’

But, in yet another significant blow to Mr Coveney’s hopes, councillors who have declared who they will vote for, are supporting Mr Varadkar by a margin of just under two to one. Fine Gael’s 232 councillors constitute 10% of the Fine Gael leadership vote.

Senior figures from Mr Varadkar’s camp said: ‘We have 111 councillor supporters and will be unveiling more.’ Mr Coveney is believed to have the support of just over 60 councillors.

In terms of councillor support, the ‘conservative’ constituency Carlow-Kilkenny sees Mr Varadkar outscore Mr Coveney by a margin of six to one. And even if Mr Varadkar’s support doesn’t reach the expected two-to-one margin, Mr Varadkar will still likely claim at least 5% – and possibly more – to add to the 40% that the 45 pledged parliamentary members are already worth to him.

This would mean Mr Varadkar requires only 5% from the possible 25% that the 21,000-strong membership represents to win. In this

case, Mr Coveney would need to win more than 80% of the vote – or four out of every five votes cast by the membership to secure the grand prize.

Supporters of Mr Varadkar were confidently claiming yesterday that ‘to date we have secured the support of over 111 councillors, the second electoral college is now in the bag’. Mr Varadkar’s team is also confident about securing the votes of the 50 councillors who have not yet declared, saying: ‘The momentum is gathering in our direction; councillors are listening to their voters and behaving accordingly.’

Mr Varadkar, of Dublin West, is believed to be securing high levels of support in the capital and Leinster where traditionally conservative counties, such as Wexford, are breaking 7/2 in his favour. The accelerating level of support for Mr Varadkar among councillors means he is poised to win enough votes among councillors, TDs and senators alone to secure the throne.

But Mr Varadkar told the Mail on Sunday he was ‘taking nothing for granted and will be on the campaign trail until the very last vote is cast on Friday’.

Last night, MEP Mairéad McGuinness declared her support for Minister Coveney saying he showed ‘grit and determination’ to stay in the race.