FG’S FEMALE TDS FACING MELTDOWN
Party chiefs warn two-thirds risk losing their seats
AS many as two-thirds of Fine Gael’s women TDs are in danger of losing their seats at the next general election, party strategists fear.
This would stymie Leo Varadkar’s plans to appoint more female ministers if he is back in power after the next election.
In the wake of the ongoing controversy within the party over the Government of ‘men in grey suits’, supporters of the Taoiseach pledged to increase the number of women they would put zzup for election, to give Mr Varadkar a ‘bigger pick’.
However, privately, senior strategists are concerned that they will have ‘almost no women to promote’, mainly because of the
boundary changes in the next election and the fact that a higher proportion of first-time TDs fail to win their seats back.
In Election 2016 the party secured 11 female TDs including four first-termers. But modest as this is, senior strategists fear that number may be decimated next time out, and a number of high-profile deputies will be badly affected by the constituency boundaries redraw based on the 2016 census. Private polls also indicate that established TDs are under pressure.
‘All of our first-term and more established female TDs are under serious threat,’ a source told the Irish Mail on Sunday. One senior figure warned: ‘Of our TDs only Heather Humphreys, Frances Fitzgerald and maybe Catherine Byrne, if she runs again, are safe.’
Social Protection Minister Regina Doherty may also be safe, but only because of the danger facing party colleague and constituency rival, Junior Minister Helen McEntee. To add to the concern, a poll published last night shows the ‘Leo bounce’ is already dissipating – with Fine Gael down two percentage points, and now only three points ahead of Fianna Fáil.
While Fine Gael is expected to hold its own in Dublin, serious concerns surround all of their female deputies there.
Party sources told the MoS: ‘All of our young first-term TDs, the new blood, Kate O’Connell, Josepha Madigan, Maria Bailey and Hildegarde Naughten; and Helen McEntee the next newest, are under threat’. The MoS has also learned that in Laois-Offaly, polls have indicated that Marcella Corcoran Kennedy is under severe pressure. And this was before she lost even more ground after being dismissal as a junior minister by Mr Varadkar. One source explained: ‘Marcella was in trouble in Offaly when it was a three-seater, she will be devoured now that there are only two seats and she’s lost the job.’
Dublin Bay South TD Kate O’Connell, a constituency rival of Eoghan Murphy, Mr Varadkar’s campaign manager during the leadership election, is also in trouble. She was criticised during that campaign for dismissing Mr Varadkar’s supporters as choirboys. One senior strategist warned: ‘Kate O’Connell, particularly after the choirboys comment, is a marginal’.
They added: ‘Even if Eoghan wants to carry her, like in 2016, all the old dowagers don’t like her. She is too rough and rural for them.’
They also warned that Josepha Madigan will face a real challenge from Fine Gael senator Neal Richmond in Dublin Rathdown.
They said he is very unlike former justice minister Alan Shatter and has the backing of former party TD in the area, Olivia Mitchell, who is known to be a tougher constituency fighter than Mr Shatter. Both Dublin Bay South and Dublin Rathdown have been intensively polled, and sources say: ‘Everyone is very tight-lipped, the news obviously is not good’. There are also concerns for Maria Bailey, the high-profile first-term TD for Dún Laoghaire, and Mary Mitchell O’Connor, the former minister demoted to super junior minister by Mr Varadkar. One strategist warned: ‘In Dún Laoghaire there is an embarrassment of riches on the gender front, but, that also means twice the danger. You would think, Mary Mitchell O’Connor being a minister would be safe but southside electorates are very difficult, they may turn their noses up at her profile.’ The same problem hits Ms Doherty and Ms McEntee in Meath East, whose success last time out leaves one vulnerable, especially since there is a strong challenge from Sinn Féin here. One source warned that Ms McEntee has been hit hard by constituency changes ‘which means Regina is safe’.
First-term TD in Galway West Hildegarde Naughten, who is also under pressure from Sinn Féin, has been hurt by boundary changes.
And there are even concerns for Tánaiste Frances Fitzgerald, in Dublin Mid-West, ‘who should be safe but she is getting on a bit’. One source even said: ‘It might have been better if Leo put her in charge of the dole in that constituency.’
A source noted: ‘The problem on the women front is that we are terribly short of new talent. There were very few close runners-up in Election 2016 – and as for the Seanad – well, once you go past Michelle Mulherin you are down to Catherine Noone. It’s that bad.’
They added: ‘We are utterly short on the bright new talent front. As of now there is a real possibility that Leo will have no one to promote outside of Frances, Heather, Regina and Mary Mitchell. We may have no one to promote even if we wanted to.’
Last year’s election results also show that women who were added to the Fine Gael tickets to meet gender quota targets polled particularly badly. In Dublin West Senator Catherine Noone, Mr Varadkar’s running mate, did terribly, securing just 1,074 first preferences. She did not even recoup her election deposit.
In Kerry, Grace O’Donnell was added to the ticket and only won 776 first preference votes. In Wicklow, where Fine Gael won two seats with Health Minister Simon Harris and Junior Minister Andrew Doyle, Avril Cronin was added to the ticket but only managed to secure 3% of the overall vote.
In Charlie Flanagan’s Laois constituency Thomasina Connell secured 10% of the vote, polling 4,233 first preference votes. In Dublin Bay North, a stronghold for Minister for Education Richard Bruton, Stephanie Regan was added to the Fine Gael ticket but only managed 1,857 first preference votes.
‘The dowagers don’t like Kate. She is too rural’ ‘No one to promote even if we wanted to’