What TDs really think about Repeal the Eighth
Often ‘deeply held’ positions on abortion advance political ambitions
EVERYTHING in politics is politics. A politician tests every action with a single question – ‘will it help me get elected?’ This applies in the case of abortion as it does in every other part of a politician’s working life.
The bewildering array of abortion positions held by the 218 TDs and senators have one fundamental in common – each is designed to retain a politician’s seat. Many politicians who have taken one public stance tell me privately that they hold another. Others say their deeply held personal views tally with their public statement. In some instances, I believe them.
Yet often their views also tally with those of their diehard constituency supporters and core voters. With higher profile politicians, who have higher ambitions, the public stance on abortion is often synchronised with their wider personal goals or the national aims of their party.
Of the male TDs I speak to, many haven’t had ‘deeply personal life journeys’ and, when discussing abortion privately, don’t have strong views, deep down. Many wish the whole thing would go away quickly. I suspect this wish will not be granted and the Government’s hopes for a May 25 deadline could be missed.
Most women in the Oireachtas will support the cross-party committee’s findings that recommend repeal of the Eighth Amendment and the introduction of abortion up to 12 weeks. Yet with many of these cases too – often in a more nuanced manner – political ambition plays a role.
THE personal thinking of a politician can be influenced by political aims almost involuntarily. Take, for instance, Simon Coveney, who said he supports repeal but not the joint committee’s recommendation that abortion be allowed up to 12 weeks. He said he read the report and spoke to his wife and others before coming to a decision. Yet this position reinforces his political aspirations.
A very close supporter in his constituency told me that Mr Coveney’s supporters strongly share the opinion that 12 weeks is a step too far. And there is a broader, longer-term political strategy. In last year’s Fine Gael leadership contest, Mr Coveney won a far greater share of the Fine Gael membership and councillors – Leo Varadkar won on the more important college of the parliamentary party. Mr Coveney knows most of the membership is based in his home ground of Munster; they are generally older, richer and more conservative than the parliamentary party and want to maintain the status quo. His abortion stance will boost his leadership ambitions.
In the same constituency Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, like Mr Coveney, wants to be taoiseach. At the party’s ard fheis, politics professor Tim Bale advised that if there is a referendum this year, Fianna Fáil’s electoral success will rely on it being on the right (ie liberal, progressive) side. The members didn’t heed him and voted at the ard fheis to retain the Eighth. However, Mr Martin took Mr Bale’s advice. To become taoiseach, Mr Martin needs to break Fine Gael’s stranglehold on Dublin, particularly on the southside. He must be seen as liberal, progressive and metropolitian to do so.
MR COVENEY and Mr Martin can take these strategic positions as their Dáil seats are assured. It is also likely that their running mates will take opposite positions and they can then divide the vote.
Another politician with a safe seat and soaring ambition is the Taoiseach. Mr Varadkar does not crave the acceptance of the people of Dublin West, or even, long term, that of the Fine Gael rank and file. It is the Irish media, the world media, Justin Trudeau and the US tech billionaires that matter to him. All are irredeemably liberal, so his choice was never in doubt.
The re-election of most TDs and senators, however, is not assured. A Fianna Fáil TD said he wanted to back repeal but had a convention coming up and his resolutely prolife party could have resisted his selection. He believes the voter he is targeting is extremely conservative on abortion.
It’s a very broad brush but politicians who require the support of older or rural voters will be inclined to take conservative positions. Those who must rely on younger or metropolitan voters will be more liberal. But there are still many variations.
Fianna Fáil, for instance, has two pro-life candidates in Dún Laoghaire, one of the country’s most liberal constituencies.
Sinn Féin is the only one of the three major parties that will have a consistent position on abortion (repeal and 12 weeks).
I believe the referendum date we reveal today is ambitious. And the possibility of agreeing and then voting through legislation to replace the Eighth Amendment before the end of the year when the Government does not have a majority, is unlikely. This chaos could lead to a No vote.