Will it win Varadkar votes?

THE Taoiseach was clearly thinking of posterity launching Project Ireland 2040 on Friday. It was a unique opportunity for him to show that he really is a cut above other, self-serving politicians – and on track for his transition to ‘statesman’.

Professionals endorsed the wealth of imagination and meticulous detail in the plan but the ultimate question is this: can this State be rebooted a century after independence by what are essentially ‘aspirations’?

No matter how artfully it is crafted and presented, an ambition, even one protected by statute, needs good luck and steely determination to deliver it.

But Project 2040 is also the first draft of a re-election manifesto.

If the public is sufficiently impressed by the plan, the Taoiseach may be persuaded to go to the country after the Budget in the autumn.

The pomp and circumstance of its launch in Sligo was also a salutary reminder that we are living in an age of presidential politics, where a popular party leader presents himself as a policy wonk.

Leo Varadkar is the ace up Fine Gael’s sleeve, the most popular party leader in a generation. His Indian background and sexuality set him apart from more traditional politicians – and opinion polls say voters like the contrast.

And, of course, the political potential of spending €116bn to replace the depleted national infrastructure offers a real prospect of the Taoiseach and the Government being returned to office. There is also a built-in bonus: the results of a snap election would be known long before voters could absorb the Byzantine detail and evaluate the plan.

And that begs the ultimate political question: can anyone satisfy everyone in the delicate balance between urban and rural, Dublin and the provincial cities? Answer: maybe – but only if they will promise all things to all people. Details of the Metro, Luas and Dart, a new airport runway and motorways, thousands of hospital beds and 20,000 more school places, plus every material shortcoming and spiritual need fulfilled, create a tsunami of information.

It is impossible to absorb that volume of detail and come up with a snap answer and informed analysis in the limited time since the launch and I will not attempt it.

I do know rural TDs who say that the population of prosperous Dublin cannot swell by another million people while the rest of Ireland shrinks from neglect.

The plan emphasises brownfield sites for new building and 500,000 houses to shelter the growing population. The individual proposals will be protected by statute, making it more difficult for future governments to make changes and play politics. Yet the Taoiseach blithely ignored the current housing crisis and, more ominously, the economic threat of Brexit, alongside the risk to the peace process in Northern Ireland – crises that could beggar the country.

Project Ireland 2040 will be engraved on the reputations of the triumvirate at the heart of Government: Taoiseach Leo Varadkar with ministers Paschal Donohoe and Eoghan Murphy.

But, however impressive their document is, the International Monetary Fund knows how gloriously Ireland can screw up capital investment.

Spending on infrastructure here is 58% less effective than in other advanced countries.

And the IMF says Ireland ‘should bring the efficiency of its infrastructure closer to the frontier of best practice in advanced countries, and deliver more ‘bang for the buck’ from

infrastructure spending.’

It is a familiar message: politicians love announcing major projects and senior civil servants enjoy managing the process to deliver them. And prestigious public projects enhance the careers and legacy of both the ministers and their enabling civil servants.

Before submitting their subliminal message of selfless patriotism, the ministers need reminding that they are politicians – and re-election is their most basic instinct.

And despite promoting it as a formal political event, the launch of Project Ireland 2040 was more like the announcement of a lottery winner. And not just the national lottery but Euromillions, with such enormous amounts of money that almost defy comprehension.

I really, really hope ‘Project Ireland 2040 lives up to the sales pitch, and can unite politicians of all parties and none, in the Dáil and be delivered to a deserving people. But I also worry that my unbridled optimism is hope once again triumphing over experience.

I was there 16 years ago when Bertie Ahern delivered an uplifting speech about the National Spatial Strategy For Ireland 2002 – 2020; it was no less ambitious or more aspirational than Leo Varadkar’s presentation on Friday.

But a shameless decentralisation ruse two years later left the National Spatial Strategy an embarrassing irrelevance.

The money is available now to fund these fiercely ambitious aspirations but, like his transition to statesman, managing the future is still a work in progress for the Taoiseach.