THE GRUDGE FACTOR
As one of the few coaches with the ability to consistently get under Ireland’s skin, Warren Gatland will travel to Dublin full of confidence
ADVERSITY appears to be Warren Gatland’s ideal working environment.
Wales will visit Dublin sore after their defeat to England, but able to call upon large stocks of anger and resentment.
They have fuelled plenty of previous Gatland successes, for as well as his status as a world-class coach, he is a proven performer in difficult circumstances. When the Welsh plight looks grim and their need is great, he has delivered.
The opening match of this year’s Six Nations was only the latest evidence, when, shorn of eight starters, including a two-time Lions captain and other distinguished stars, he mended and made do, picking a team of mostly Scarlets and watching as they ripped Scotland asunder.
Another starter, Leigh Halfpenny, was withdrawn before the England game, and in that grim, hard contest, Wales’ deficiencies eventually mattered. They lacked quality but also decision-makers.
However, World Rugby’s admission that a try should have been awarded to Gareth Anscombe will feed their grievances, with no better man than Gatland to keep them nourished.
It gives them hope and purpose after a match that also revealed their current weaknesses.
And it also makes them extremely unpredictable opposition for Joe Schmidt’s Ireland in Lansdowne Road.
They should be fortified, too, by the return of at least some stars, with a potential back three of Halfpenny, George North and Liam Williams in Dublin. They will need men of that calibre, because for all the bravery and discipline of the Twickenham performance — Wales conceded only two penalties despite enduring sustained periods of English pressure — they played for much of it like a side held together by reserves and desperation.
Then there is the importance of Gatland himself — and there is no more important strength in the challenge Wales will bring in six days’ time. Ireland are painfully aware of that.
It was 12 years ago this week that Mike Ruddock resigned as head coach of Wales less than a year after leading them to their first Grand Slam in 27 seasons.
Confusion and a degree of mystery still attend the circumstances of his departure, but player power has always been strongly suspected, with certain senior players thought to be too close to executives in the Welsh union.
It is simply unimaginable that this could happen under Gatland. Whatever his limitations as a coach, his status as the undisputed boss has never been questioned in Wales.
In fact the last time Gatland felt vulnerable as a coach is almost two decades ago now, and brings us back to his intense, complicated relationship with Ireland.
Ten years ago, Gatland brought Wales to Croke Park. It was his first Six Nations as Welsh head coach, and he was facing an Ireland team suffering the last throes of the Eddie O’Sullivan era. O’Sullivan had been Gatland’s assistant when the latter led Ireland from 1998 to 2001, and Gatland gave an interview to BBC Wales before that 2008 match making clear his belief that O’Sullivan had been less than forthcoming with his support during their Irish days together.
‘I suppose what I didn’t have on reflection, that I have here, was probably that undenying [sic] loyalty you might expect from people within your coaching setup,’ he said then.
It was only reiterating the common knowledge that relations between the pair were fractured, and that Gatland held O’Sullivan partly responsible for the difficulties that eventually resulted in him getting fired by the IRFU.
Wales won that match, ended the campaign with a Grand Slam, and they have continued to be a major problem for Ireland under Gatland thereafter.
There is their record under him in Dublin, for a start: of five Six Nations matches played in Croke Park and Lansdowne Road under Gatland Wales have won two, lost two and drew on their last visit, in 2016.
Of 10 Six Nations games Wales and Ireland have played in Gatland’s decade with the Welsh, they have won five, lost four and drawn one.
If that suggests the closeness of these games, it also speaks to Gatland’s ability to make groups of players competitive who have spent a decade watching their Irish counterparts play in much better provincial teams and do better than them in the Celtic League and in Europe.
For years, the winter would be spent watching Ospreys, Dragons, Blues and Scarlets squashed in Europe and in the RDS and Thomond Park, as Munster and Leinster soared.
Come February and March, domestic circumstances wouldn’t matter as Wales posed problems for Ireland that, more often than not, they have been unable to solve.
This is testament to Gatland’s coaching prowess. He can be a whinger, particularly when he plays mind games and they provoke media controversies. This happened in 2008 and again a year later.
On that occasion, Ireland were going to Cardiff trying to complete a Grand Slam when Gatland said Wales players disliked their Irish counterparts most of any rivals in the championship. When he complained about the reaction this provoked, he grumbled that ‘perhaps in future I should take a leaf out of Declan Kidney’s book, that’s probably the way to go in future. Then you get clichés and nothing’.
It was an extraordinarily meanspirited thing to say, and it diminished him. When Ireland beat his men with Ronan O’Gara’s late drop goal the following day, his discomfort was compounded.
That tendency towards misguided mind games aside, his credentials as an outstanding coach were long ago established.
When his Lions tied the series in New Zealand last summer, Gatland’s reputation was burnished in the global game.
But in Ireland, his talent has not
When the plight looks grim and their need great, he has delivered
been lightly weighed for a long time. He’s faced Schmidt four times in the Six Nations, and only once has Schmidt had the better of it.
That came in 2014, on the way to the first of two titles Ireland claimed under Schmidt. But defeats in Cardiff in 2015 and 2017 are sandwiched by a draw in Dublin two years ago.
Perhaps not surprisingly, the most recent match between the countries should be most instructive for those seeking an insight into Welsh intentions.
In Cardiff last March, they worked Ireland out, helped by a sin-binning for Johnny Sexton in the first half, and a shoulder injury sustained by Conor Murray after half an hour.
Wales negated Sexton, and in doing so Ireland’s reliance on him was emphasised. The same was true of Murray: so desperate was Schmidt to keep him involved that Murray appeared for the second half (lasting only five minutes), despite playing with effectively one arm for the closing minutes of the first period.
The game exposed Ireland’s reliance on two of their truly worldclass players, and the unsettling truth is that dependency has not lessened. Look at how Ireland’s complete control of Italy came apart when Schmidt withdrew the pair early in the second half against Italy last week.
Joey Carbery’s lack of experience, and the few minutes he has played at No10 this season for Leinster, counted against him as he and Kieran Marmion failed to exploit Italian vulnerabilities as had been expertly done in the first half.
Be certain Gatland noted that as well. Closing down Ireland’s playmakers will be much more difficult in Dublin, given he won’t have Jon Davies, Dan Biggar, Rhys Webb or Sam Warburton in his side.
But if any coach can find a way, it is him. He understood last year that Ireland tend to play narrowly against better sides (as they did in Paris). That saw his players target CJ Stander, knowing that if they tackled Ireland’s most obvious carrier, he would bring the ball to the ground with him rather than offload it.
That completely disrupted what had been a reliable source of Irish momentum last spring.
Schmidt’s team showed their ambitious side in obliterating Italy, and a similar willingness to attack could ruin the Welsh.
Schmidt needs to be daring. But he needs to do so against a coach good enough, tough enough, and hardheaded enough to make Ireland miserable again.
Wales want next Saturday to be a battle. In adversity is where Gatland works best.