FIGHT OR FLIGHT?

Articulate and shrewd but questions still linger if Martin has the bottle for an election battle

SO it would appear that Fianna Fáil have finally had enough of the confidence and supply agreement. This week a collective flexing of the muscles of such party luminaries as Barry Cowen, Michael McGrath, Darragh O’Brien and Willie O’Dea all but spelled the end of the current arrangement.

While there is every chance that this Dáil will limp on to the October budget, the suspicion must be that Fianna Fáil’s self-respect cannot really take much more of being lectured as to their responsibilities by members of the Government cosseted by the trappings of power.

The latest example of how weird modern Irish politics is came with Cowen’s pronouncement that the agreement’s ‘natural lifetime may be over’. This led to an outraged response of surprise and disappointment by Independent Alliance junior minister Finian McGrath who has the luxury of sitting at the Cabinet table.

As ever, Brexit was given as a reason for why there can be no election. McGrath insisted that such talk was irresponsible and part of Cowen’s ‘usual huff and puff talk’. But then McGrath said restoration of public sector pay would be a priority issue for him in the next budget. Asked if he would withdraw support for a budget if there was a lack of progress, McGrath replied: ‘It’s something that I would have to look at.’

So it’s one thing for the Government to be brought down from within, but hell and damnation should rain down on Fianna Fáil if they have the temerity to do so.

THE reasons for avoiding an election, we are told, are Brexit, the unpredictability of the outcome of any general election and a fragile, if recovering, economy. The Government itself says it needs time to make a significant dent in homelessness figures and to tackle hospital waiting lists.

There is nothing irresponsible or unpatriotic about a general election being held before any final Brexit deal is agreed between Britain and the EU. That smacks of a strange throwback to the colonial mentality of not doing anything to upset our masters.

We have had a change of leadership in government already since the British voted for Brexit and a change of government after any putative general election won’t change the basic Irish stance in which pretty much all parties agree. The clarion call of irresponsibility sounds mighty fine when uttered from the safe confines of Government Buildings. Fianna Fáil finds itself in the awkward position of trying to pull off the difficult trick of claiming credit for the Government’s successes while lambasting it for its failures.

Last October’s budget is a classic case. Fianna Fáil gave a tepid welcome to the increases in the number of teachers and gardaí and what it calls the progressive measures in the budget while, at the same time, excoriating the Government for its paltry efforts in housebuilding and the miserable increases in takehome pay for pretty much every group in society.

Fianna Fáil is also in a difficult spot over its history. In one way, it is a long and proud one. The 1937 constitution, opening up the economy in the 1950s, entering the EEC, social partnership, and the Northern Ireland peace process are all worthy achievements.

It is Fianna Fáil’s more recent history where the trouble resides and this cannot simply be summed up in the bust and the bailout. As Sinn Féin’s Eoin Ó Broin pointed out this week, during Fianna Fáil’s last term in office – from 1997 to 2010 – just over 5,500 social houses were built per annum and the number of households on local authority waiting lists jumped from 27,000 to 98,000; an increase of some 258%.

This was part of Sinn Féin’s warning that the electorate shouldn’t heed the crocodile tears of Fianna Fáil when it comes to homelessness and the housing crisis.

While Fianna Fáil has often been accused of being political hucksters, only interested in their own welfare and of playing politics with everything else, the same charge could well be placed at the feet of Sinn Féin who have declared its ‘last chance saloon’ for Minister for Housing Eoghan Murphy. Warning that if Murphy doesn’t change track, Ó Broin said Sinn Féin would be looking at all options in the months ahead including a motion of no confidence in the minister.

There is a fine line to be drawn when in opposition. The temptation is, of course, to just give the Government a good kicking and pretty much oppose everything – but that is the opposition of the lazy and the damned. Fianna Fáil fell into that trap before and Sinn Féin reside it in now.

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has declared the homeless and housing crisis to be a national emergency. The logical outcome of this is that this emergency needs a Dáil response not a party political one which, in essence, is what Sinn Féin is giving us. Fine Gael are equally as culpable.

But Irish politics has never worked in a consensual parliamentary way and that is why new politics is a charade. We still have the same politics we always have had of government and opposition faced off in an adversarial war.

Fianna Fáil, meanwhile, resides in a political no man’s land. If Sinn Féin seeks Murphy’s head, Fianna Fáil will basically have to decide whether to have an election on Sinn Féin’s terms by agreeing to Murphy’s removal. The alternative is to oppose it, wait for the budget, and have to declare in the meantime how they can stand over a minister who hasn’t been able to stop the escalation in homelessness.

Micheál Martin desperately wants to be back in power as Taoiseach. The next election is his only chance. After resurrecting his party from the trauma of the 2011 election and getting so close in 2016, it seemed that his Soldiers of Destiny were destined for power come the next election.

The result of the Fine Gael leadership race, and the ensuing popularity of Varadkar with the public, changed all that. The opinion polls have been bad for Martin for a consistently worrying time.

His party is split on abortion. His reshuffle, with just the one addition in the pugnacious young Dublin West TD Jack Chambers – has left the country unmoved. Fine Gael appears to be the party with all the talent and all the momentum. Yet, the lesson of 2016 is that elections matter. Martin is a formidable campaigner and with an election that will be fought on the economy, housing and the health services, he will pose a significant challenge for Varadkar.

‘There is a tide in the affairs of men, which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune,’ says one of Shakespeare’s great tragic heroes Brutus, who never got the top job. Martin’s legacy will be defined by the next election. If he wants to be Taoiseach he should channel his inner Brutus and take the tide. The country faces huge challenges around Brexit, health and homelessness. Neither he nor the country can afford to wait.