Shane McGrath
Irish rugby’s hopes for success can’t rely on only one province
FRAGILITY is not a word squeaked across a whiteboard by Irish rugby’s marketing people. They are selling a good-news story. Strength, unity and glory are the catch-cries of winners.
With a Grand Slam not long secured and Leinster looking good for a fourth European Cup in six days’ time, the health of the professional game in Ireland looks robust.
But there is no word more relevant than fragility to plans being made for Irish rugby.
Memories of the marvellous performance in Twickenham to secure a Six Nations clean sweep remain vivid, and Leinster are capable of surpassing the standards bequeathed by their great 2012 champions in Bilbao next weekend.
Beyond the good news, though, there is an abundance of evidence pointing to the fragility of the Irish condition.
THE hunt for new markets explains why the European Cup in rugby will be decided in Bilbao, costing fans thousands to attend.
The same impulse brings the Champions League final to Kiev.
It is why the 2016 Olympics was held in Rio, with disastrous results.
Seeing Leinster play Racing will not convert the Basque country, though.
It would be more sensible to try and secure the modest levels of interest in Italy by holding a European Cup final in Rome.
The system governing professionalism in this country has worked better than any other model, with the exception of New Zealand.
However, it relies on four teams, ambitious in their own rights but with the well-being of the national team the priority.
A plan reliant on just four squads for success has very little room for waste.
Yet only one of the Irish provinces can be satisfied with the quality of its work this season.
Leinster are a shining example of best practice: excellent youth development thanks to a rich supply of school players; outstanding coaching; and, in Scott Fardy and James Lowe, judicious choices in expensive imports.
None of the other provinces come close to that standard.
And this isn’t only, or even mainly because they do not have the bountiful playing riches available to Leinster through the private schools’ system in their catchment area.
It undoubtedly confers an advantage, but it is only one of the reasons contributing to their improvements – and only one of the explanations for failings elsewhere on the island.
Ulster are dysfunctional. The trials of Paddy Jackson and Stuart Olding overshadow everything, and the province has handled the fall-out from their dismissals terribly.
But losing two head coaches in one season exposes problems on the pitch, while the team have too often lacked plain fight. Their display in losing to Wasps in a decisive European pool match last January was pathetic.
The appointment of Dan McFarland is said to have underwhelmed some of the team’s supporters, but it is encouraging, given his involvement in management teams that have wrought dramatic improvements in previously struggling groups.
However, no matter how strong an impression he makes, it is going to take time to rebuild Ulster into a coherent, credible force.
Ireland head coach Joe Schmidt will not be able to rely on any new talent emerging there between now and the World Cup.
Munster are not in turmoil, but they are in flux. Johann van Graan had made a strong impression on succeeding Rassie Erasmus, but their defeat to Racing 92 brought with it a ruthless diagnosis of their deficiencies.
And they are extensive: they need an out half, at least one second row, and a loose forward. Simon Zebo will need to be replaced by a proven back-three player, too, while more experienced cover at centre would help.
They are way off the standards Leinster have maintained throughout their European campaign, and without spending a great deal of money to fill some of the gaps listed above, they will not get anywhere near them next season.
Connacht have never supplied industrial quantities of Test talent, but their Pro12 triumph in 2016 should have been the start of a dramatic change. Instead, it was the climax of a brief, wonderful transformation inspired by Pat Lam.
But the health of no province should be so reliant on one figure. That Connacht were speaks to his talents but also to the fragility of the entire project.
That has been confirmed by the failed reign of Kieran Keane. His successor should be given the time and the resources to develop a unit that can survive the departure of one or two major figures, be they players or coaches.
Were Connacht nurtured to the extent that they could provide six or eight options for Schmidt and the man who succeeds him, it would bring lasting changes to how they operate, how other players judge them, and how Ireland do their business, too.
The next World Cup is only a season away, and next term will see the most important Irish talents only occasionally exposed to their provinces.
That will have consequences for regional ambitions in the short term, but it is their strength in the longer-term that should be a priority.
Ireland’s ambitions are fragile if reliant upon just one outstanding contributor.