Yes won’t give FG an election bounce
Leo would do well to recall what followed the marriage referendum
UK could look here to see how to run a referendum
This isn’t a sign FF will do badly in next election
MANY will be caught up in the euphoria of the decisive Yes vote in Friday’s referendum but politicians would be wise not to – for it will have little influence on their professional futures.
Yesterday, I was in Dublin Castle. Yes campaigners such as Leo Varadkar, Simon Harris, Ruth Coppinger and others celebrated in the May sunshine like Roman emperors acknowledging a triumph.
The scenes were unnervingly reminiscent of those at the same location on May 23, 2015, the day of the celebrations for the Marriage Equality Referendum. Repeal supporters loudly opened bottles of Champagne, sang songs – I recognised a well-known 4 Non Blondes number – and, just like 2015, cheered rapturously when RTÉ’s Miriam O’Callaghan waved to them.
Though undoubtedly yesterday’s vote marked a significant change in the attitude to women’s health and Irish social attitudes, this vote gives few indications to how people will vote in the next general election.
There was belief in Dublin Castle and abroad that yesterday’s result was a huge triumph for individual high-profile politicians such as Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Health Minister Simon Harris and Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou MacDonald.
Lesser known politicians such as Fine Gael Senator Catherine Noone and Fianna Fáil’s Lisa Chambers will also expect a boost. Similarly, there might be a belief that a swathe of Fianna Fáil politicians have done themselves some damage by backing No in this campaign.
But a look at political events after 2015, show that votes on social issues often have little relevance when it comes to the cold economic issues in the minds of voters when they enter a general election polling booth. Think of the high-profile figures of the 2015 Marriage Equality Referendum. That the referendum came about at all was because of the tireless work of the then-Labour leader Eamon Gilmore. In 2011, he insisted that the Programme for Government agreement with Fine Gael include a provision for the establishment of a Constitutional Convention. It would examine ‘provision for the legalisation of same-sex marriage’. He had been ousted as Labour leader long before the poll. His heir, Joan Burton, took the acclamation on behalf of her party in 2015. She was gone less than a year later after a disastrous performance in the February 2016 general election. Labour was wiped out, losing 30 seats, primarily because of austerity cuts. Labour TD Aodhán Ó Riordáin was one of the most vocifer- ous advocates and he lost his seat. Not only did Fianna Fáil’s Averil Power lead her party’s campaign, she left because of what she perceived to be her colleagues’ lack of effort.
She failed to be elected to the Dáil at the general election and is now out of politics. Fine Gael’s Jerry Buttimer, a gay man and high-profile campaigner, lost his seat in Cork South Central. Taoiseach Enda Kenny was a central figure of that campaign and his party lost 26 seats in 2016.
Leo Varadkar was the poster boy of that campaign, having come out as gay during it.
He did his party no good in 2016, failing to bring in a running mate.
Fianna Fáil was criticised by Averil Power for its efforts then, but it doubled its seats in 2016. The referendum on the Eighth Amendment was a single-issue campaign. Unlike some referendums, such as the Lisbon Referendum of 2008, it was not political. It did not become an opportunity to kick a Government or a vehicle for various antiEuropean ideologies.
The 2018 referendum was extremely well-run – the British political establishment might look across the Irish Sea to see how to run a referendum. The Brexit vote was made without any planning for what would happen afterwards. Tory leader David Cameron was stunned when the Yes vote won.
Here, Health Minister Simon Harris published, months in advance, the legislation that would be enacted if repeal was successful. There is a clear path now.
The only unexpected element is the size of the Yes vote – which will hasten the pace of its enactment with political momentum now receiving support.
When voters considered Fine Gael’s performance in Government, the marriage referendum wasn’t considered. Austerity cuts, a dysfunctional health service and Irish Water were the factors that influenced voters. In general elections, as Bill Clinton said, it’s ‘the economy, stupid’.
A crusty political backroom man said to me last night that this is not a guide to the impending fortunes of political parties. People will vote on what he called the ‘retail issues’ of tax cuts, wages and the functionality of the health service.
Fine Gael sources delighted last night in the discomfort of Micheál Martin, who was repeatedly asked by interviewers about the problems within his party after 32 parliamentary party members campaigned for a No vote.
Mr Martin’s constituency colleague and potential future leadership candidate, Michael McGrath, campaigned for No. As did Mr Martin’s deputy leader Dara Calleary. Yet neither man will see
his seat under threat. Indeed despite the national rebuff to the No side, the result will do little harm to Fianna Fáil candidates in a general election campaign.
TDs and Senators who will hope to be candidates will have assessed the views of their hardcore supporters, and the demographic where their vote is in their constituency heartland.
Fianna Fáil only has three TDs in Dublin, the rest are rural based. Such canny political operators as John McGuinness, Éamon Ó Cuív and Mr McGrath will not have taken a stance on abortion that would have damaged their election prospects.
Similarly on the No side, watch Independents Mattie McGrath, Danny Healy-Rae and Michael Healy-Rae romp home in the next general election.
High-profile Yes campaigner Fine Gael Senator Catherine Noone wants to run in the next general election but she hasn’t even secured a constituency yet. One thing is for sure, she will not be running with Mr Varadkar in Dublin West again. Yesterday’s momentous vote was another validation of Ireland’s metamorphosis from a Catholic, patriarchal State to a country that is liberal on social issues and listens to women.
But it was not an indication that left or liberal-leaning politicians are in the ascendancy. It is not a sign that Fianna Fáil is split or that it will do badly in the next election.
The only firm marker I saw emerge yesterday was the further improvement of relations and the subliminal communications between Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.
Within minutes of each other yesterday, Mr Varadkar and Ms MacDonald said the result showed how ‘new politics could work’.
Fine Gael, Sinn Féin and Labour ran a joint tally in Dublin West yesterday.
And the people who never get it wrong, Boylesports Bookmakers, have cut a Fine Gael/Sinn Féin coalition from 20/1 to 5/1.
This improves relations between FG and Sinn Féin