Inching closer to securing a soft border
THE British Cabinet’s agreement on how to proceed with Brexit negotiations is, tentatively at least, good news for Ireland. It is a step in the right direction, though there is a long way yet to go – and some elements of the plan have previously been rejected by Brussels as unacceptable.
Nonetheless, the fact that a soft Brexit might be on the cards will bring relief to exporters here, as the British plan envisages regulatory alignment and a common customs area for agriculture and manufacturing – the two areas of Irish economic activity most exposed to the neighbouring market. However, the UK also wants to take back control of immigration and enjoy the right to negotiate free trade deals with countries outside the EU, and there will be the perception in other EU states, notably France and Germany, that Theresa May still wants to have her cake and eat it.
The commitment to a soft border shows that Westminster finally understands that what it initially thought to be a minor irritant in the process is seen by the other 27 member states as front and centre. That is testament to the lobbying undertaken by this Government and the previous one to ensure that any effect on cross-border trade and on the peace process be entirely mitigated.
That is why Ireland now must play its part again – but in a more conciliatory way. The tough talk of last December was necessary to remind Britain of its obligations to Ireland, North and South. Now, as Britain softens its stance, it is time for us to do so too. If Ireland takes sides it will only be punished. Our duty now is to take on the role of mediator rather than aggressor, while also making sure that a final deal is of value to us.
A hard Brexit would be the worst possible outcome. It could lead to 40,000 job losses here and a reduction in the economic growth that is lifting some boats, but not nearly as many as we would like. To impede that progress by using false theatrics would be detrimental both to the economy and our international image.
We have a long history of peacekeeping, usually on frontlines far away from home. In this battle, the frontline is right before us and we must use all our diplomatic skills to ensure Brexit is a happy divorce and – as is the case with all the best divorces – that we manage to stay friends with everyone afterwards.