The flaw in City’s cunning plan: how Jurgen out-smarted Pep
MANCHESTER CITY looked untouchable last season but Liverpool beat them three times. On two of those occasions they overwhelmed them, with three goals in nine minutes in the Premier League win at Anfield and three goals in 19 minutes in the Champions League first leg. (And though Liverpool lost 5-0 at the Etihad, that was after Sadio Mane was sent off.) ADAM SHAFIQ trawled through the stats of City’s performances against the Big Six (rather than against the PL average), to see what was distinctive about those Liverpool games.
ROPE-A-DOPE
Like Muhammad Ali, Liverpool know how to neutralise their opponents’ strength. So, the key is how deep Liverpool set up. They cede possession to City, having six per cent less than other top-six teams (33.8 compared with 39.9 per cent). They complete only 253 passes per game. Only Burnley, Stoke and West Brom averaged fewer made passes per game than this last season.
Across the season, Liverpool average 506.1 completed passes per game, over twice as many as they did when beating City. In the six games between these teams since the start of 2016-17, Liverpool averaged 2.68 passes per passage of play, compared with 4.13 across the 2017-18 season as a whole. They also had only four sequences of 10 or more passes per game against City, where their average is 17.
This seems counter-productive, inviting City’s stars into your half with possession. Yet sitting deep and packing the box allows Liverpool to stifle City.
PARKING THE BUS
This is a classier version of that tactical canard. In their defensive third, Liverpool pass the ball conservatively, completing 91 per cent of passes. A key facet of City’s game is winning the ball back in high areas. Against the other Big Six teams, City win the ball in those areas 29 per cent of times. Against Liverpool it was 22.8 per cent.
Packing the area forces City into worse shooting chances. They average 14 shots per game against top-six sides, yet against Liverpool they have almost three times fewer shots on target per game (2.3 versus Liverpool and 6.4 against the top six). Comparing possession stats in different areas shows how overwhelming it can be to face Liverpool. Once the ball is in the middle third, Liverpool will look to play riskier passes forward, prioritising fast, attacking play. This risk is shown by their middle-third pass completion of only 71.4 per cent (more than 15 per cent lower than City’s).
Once they have the ball in the attacking third, pass completion drops below 60 per cent. But they are getting forward faster. Against City they average 15 metres forward for every passage of play, compared with their 10-metre average across the rest of 2017-18.
As a result, Liverpool had three shots directly from fast breaks in their three games with City. They also take a high proportion of their shots from ‘individual play’ (a shot after a dribble) compared with their top-six rivals.
Their style of play means they reduce the through-balls City are able to complete each game by over half, from 3.5 to 1.7.
AND THERE’S A TWIST . . .
Other defensive teams can’t break devastatingly and with lightning speed. When Liverpool win the ball deep in their own half, they clear it and don’t play out from the back against a good pressing side. When Liverpool do get the ball and break, City are exposed and Liverpool create chances. They are able to put 50 per cent of shots on target, compared with City’s 16.7 per cent, and take more than half of their shots from inside the area, unlike their opponents.