May to dump the DUP after budget
British PM to call Arlene Foster’s bluff on Brexit – but not before she gets measures through parliament
EUROPEAN leaders believe that British prime minister Theresa May will drop the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) and strike a deal on Europe after she gets her budget through next week, the Irish Mail on Sunday understands.
Assurances that Mrs May is willing to sacrifice the support of the DUP for her minority government were given by British officials in Brussels last week. Irish Government sources last night said this accounted for the ‘relaxed mood’ at last week’s summit in Brussels.
‘Everyone is very relaxed over there as they all believe that she’ll drop the DUP, throw them under the bus once the budget is through,’ said a Government figure centrally involved in negotiations with the European Commission over Brexit.
‘This is all about numbers. She needs the numbers to get her budget through. Then she can move on,’ said the Government source.
There was extensive briefing in Brussels this weekend that confirmed this belief – that the DUP will not be allowed to hold up deal on Brexit.
The MoS revealed earlier this month that an effective deal has already been struck on the border.
Central to this will be ‘technical checks’ on goods travelling through the Republic destined for the North. The DUP, whose MPs support the Tory government on crucial House of Commons votes, is opposed to any form of future customs arrangements that distinguish Northern Ireland from the UK.
‘There will be no checking from Northern Ireland to Great Britain, but there will be checking from Britain into Northern Ireland if it comes through Dublin. Sixty per cent of the trade going into Northern Ireland goes through the Republic’s ports,’ said a source.
‘They’re selling this as some territorial dispute,’ said the source.
DUP leader Arlene Foster has already described its red lines as ‘blood red’ on Brexit, prompting suggestions that her party could join with the opposition to vote down the British budget on October 29.
It is understood that British officials told European and Irish officials that the DUP would not be allowed hold up a deal.
A Government source said; ‘The DUP will be told “cause an election if you like, and then take your chances with Jeremy Corbyn”.’
Mr Corbyn has been viewed as politically close to Sinn Féin.
Earlier this month the MoS revealed that the Government has accepted a series of compromises including random ‘technical checks’ on British goods and on all UK customs, in return for no hard border.
This temporary border agreement will last for just two years. The revelations about the temporary agreement caused significant political controversy for the Government last week.
The agreement is to have ‘technical checks’ in the Irish Sea – which will aggravate Unionists – and random ‘technical checks’ in Ireland which will annoy opposition parties here.
The ‘technical checks’, which Ireland insisted they be called, could be carried out by EU customs officials, a new joint Ireland/Britain regulatory body or even private contractors, the MoS has learned.
A senior Government source said language and the use of the term ‘technical checks’ was pivotal in securing agreement. An EU proposal to call customs inspections ‘controls’ was rejected because of Government fears that it sounded like a hard border.
Ireland will accept that the whole of the UK will be in a special arrangement, which is what it was looking for on customs.
A Government source said last night: ‘It was supposed to be a backstop for Northern Ireland but it’ll be a backstop for the whole of the UK’. This is effectively what Mrs May has been seeking.
The fact that the arrangements on customs and regulation will only be for a transitional two-year period will cause problems for Taoiseach Leo Varadkar. After that period they will be renegotiated for the full UK exit.
There are fears that this will be politically damaging for Mr Varadkar and Foreign Affairs Minister Simon Coveney as it falls short of a backstop guarantee.
Mrs May is expected to publish her proposals for the border and customs issues shortly and Mr Barnier will also issue proposals. john.lee@mailonsunday.ie
‘This is all about the numbers’ ‘Selling as some sort of territorial dispute’