A MEANS TO AN END
Ireland must find balance between Six Nations success and preparing for the World Cup as Joe Schmidt needs to show he has learned the lessons from disappointment in the autumn of 2015
QUESTION: How much do we remember about Ireland’s 2015 Six Nations campaign? Most of us can recall Ireland winning the championship that year but who did we play first? Or last? Who was the team’s top try-scorer?
The answers are not readily extractable from the memory banks and research recalls that it was Italy first up, a thumping win over Scotland was Ireland’s final outing and Sean O’Brien, with two, scored the most touchdowns.
Now, how much do we remember about Ireland’s World Cup quarterfinal exit at the hands of Argentina? Unfortunately, pretty much everything – from the Pumas repeatedly ripping past a flaccid defence early on to Luke Fitzgerald offering hope off the bench, to the anguish of the phalanx of Irish frontliners watching in the stand as that hope was extinguished.
The harsh reality is that the World Cup failure overshadowed all the good that had been achieved beforehand in 2015 and that salutary history lesson forms the backdrop as Ireland embark upon another Six Nations campaign this week.
If Ireland fail, yet again, to hit their stated goal of making a World Cup semi-final, at least, in Japan this autumn, any success in this Six Nations will feel irrelevant.
That is not the official line, of course. As Ireland coach Joe Schmidt stressed last week, the Six Nations is a ‘mammoth’ tournament and, fuelled by its history and tribal passions, one that is always held up as an end in itself.
But, given Ireland’s embarrassing World Cup record stretching back 32 years and eight tournaments, it is essential this Six Nations is treated as a means to an end if that cycle is to be broken.
There are only nine Tests to go (five Six Nations games, four warmups) before Ireland kick off their World Cup campaign against Scotland in Yokohama on September 22 and they cannot be wasted.
While those warm-ups can be useful as tweaking exercises and getting players up to speed, it is in the heat of Six Nations battle where proper preparation can be achieved for the intensity levels Ireland will face in Japan.
That means seeing if Ireland’s depth, so carefully assembled since 2015, can stand up in exacting circumstances.
Going through this tournament with the established frontliners that landed the Grand Slam last year might maximise the chances of short-term Six Nations success but it could also jeopardise Ireland’s World Cup ambitions.
Conversely, going too far down the rotation route could damage the winning momentum Ireland have at present and the confidence required in tight situations at the World Cup – England’s 2003 Grand Slam launchpad for global glory later that year serving as a prime example.
The key is striking the right balance between the pursuit of Six Nations success and World Cup preparation and, thankfully, the groundwork done by Schmidt (and IRFU elite performance director David Nucifora) has put Ireland in a healthy position to find that balance.
There are numerous quality options available to Schmidt in practically every position and now they need to be properly assessed.
Take Joey Carbery. It was interesting to hear Schmidt acknowledge the support he received when deciding to start Carbery ahead of Johnny Sexton for the first Test on the tour to Australia last summer.
The Ireland coach realised the importance of exposing his designated out-half understudy to that level of scrutiny. Short-term it did not work as the tourists lost the game Carbery started and won the next two with Sexton at No10. Yet Carbery has kicked on since then with regular game time at Munster, though he needs more Ireland starts before Japan.
Does that mean Carbery should start in the opener against England on Saturday? Probably not, given the importance of tooling up for a winning start, but there is a power-
ful argument for giving the Munster man his head in two of the other games – not just the softest fixture against Italy.
Likewise, the situation at full-back needs to be established.
Rob Kearney reaffirmed his status as first-choice 15 in November, but who steps up if the soon to be 33-year-old gets injured in Japan? Is it Jordan Larmour, Andrew Conway or Will Addison? We do not know for
SixCup certain at this point and the only way to find out is running out candidates in big Nations games.
Hooker is another question mark. Rory Best will be 37 in Japan and there needs to be a contingency plan if the Ulster man is compromised by injury or form.
Sean Cronin is playing superbly but mostly used to cameo contributions at national level. If Cronin is rated first behind Best, then he needs starting examination in the Six Nations.
Or, if Niall Scannell is regarded as the most likely starter in the event of Best’s absence, the Munster man must be properly tested over the next two months.
Injuries, although always unwelcome, also create opportunities and the loss of Iain Henderson and Tadhg Beirne for the early rounds of the Six Nations could strengthen Ireland’s hand down the line.
If Ultan Dillane confirms his return to form in this tournament, Ireland will be well covered at second row when Beirne and Henderson return to fitness alongside Devin Toner and James Ryan. Equally, the absence of Kieran Marmion and Luke McGrath creates a huge chance for the excellent John Cooney to come through behind Conor Murray, again bolstering Ireland’s resources for the autumn.
Six Nations shootouts in World Cup years always arrive with an extra layer of intrigue and importance attached and, Ireland, more than any other nation, need to keep sight of the bigger picture and use one to serve the other.
That is an extremely difficult exercise for management but Schmidt and his fellow coaches have the acumen and the options to strike the right mix between rotation and consolidation.
And such are the strength of those options, there is no reason why Ireland cannot still achieve Six Nations success while advancing their readiness for what comes after.
If that leads to World Cup fulfilment in nine months, recalling the events of the next two will not be an issue.