Liverpool by 1 point
It will be so tight but I do believe that Klopp’s men have steel to make history
WITH only one league defeat so far, Liverpool have been the near-perfect immovable object compared with Manchester City’s irresistible force of 63 goals in 23 matches. It is Tottenham’s misfortune to be competing with these two teams. In some seasons, their own tally would be good enough to make them champions.
Now the real countdown is about to begin with 15 matches left in the title race. Despite the fixture pile-up that comes with being successful, I don’t think this will be lost by anyone. It has to be won and that gives Liverpool the advantage because of their current four-point lead.
I’ve gone through the remaining fixtures of all the top three and it’s conceivable that City could be unbeaten in the league between now and the end of the season and still finish second.
As a Liverpool fan, I attracted attention last weekend when the excitement of their 4-3 victory against Crystal Palace made me say out loud ‘I believe’ on Match of the Day when talking about their prospects of a first league championship since 1990.
Maybe I regret it a bit — no true supporter wants to tempt fate — but I haven’t altered my view.
Being the front-runners is uncharted territory for a lot of these Liverpool players and they’ll be aware that the pressure is going to grow. I don’t think the near-miss of 2014 will affect them — only Jordan Henderson survives from the Brendan Rodgers team — but losing last year’s Champions League final might create some doubt if they have a bad result.
Nerves can kick in and hamper free-flowing football but, on the other hand, pressure and adrenaline can create even more intense displays. This Liverpool team has a steeliness that makes me worry a bit less about them. They don’t have to play brilliantly to win.
There’s also a sense that this is their time. It’s hard to explain because generally trophies aren’t handed out on good fortune and hard work is the most important prerequisite to getting lucky. But there are times as a player where you feel a match is going your way, particularly when the opposition have hit the woodwork a couple of times and you still haven’t got going and had a shot on target. In a title race that I believe is going to be settled on very thin margins, you can’t ignore the fact that Liverpool have benefited from Riyad Mahrez missing a penalty for City at Anfield and Jordan Pickford throwing one in at the end of the Merseyside derby. These little things have an effect and City have found themselves behind because Andros Townsend and Ricardo Pereira scored goal-of-theseason contenders against them in consecutive weeks.
There are still a lot of variables, like fitness, cup runs and even bad decisions and you’d be crazy to write off City. I know they are still in four competitions and may have to face Arsenal, Everton and Chelsea in a week to squeeze in the fixture at Goodison Park because of the Carabao Cup final, but Pep Guardiola has been used to that all his career and usually won. There is also a momentum built up within a squad that plays big matches every few days at the business end of the season. We had it at Liverpool when we won three cups in the same season and United had it in their Treble year.
Liverpool have to go to Old Trafford to face Manchester United a few days after playing Bayern Munich in the Champions League. It would be easy to suggest sacrificing the Bayern game but it doesn’t work like that.
I know for Liverpool fans the league title has become the over-riding obsession but for many of the players at Anfield the Champions League is just as important. On the flip side, both clubs have to go to Everton and I fancy Liverpool to win. They have a really good record at Goodison — their last defeat was in 2010.
City might drop points at Goodison though. The tight pitch isn’t naturally suited to their game of pulling the opposition around. City also still have to go to Crystal Palace, who have already won at the Etihad.
The way City play, dominating possession and tiring the opposition, means they will find it easier to play a whole bunch of matches compared to Liverpool, who put more intensity into each game.
I’m aware City have the quality which means they could come from behind but I just don’t think Liverpool will crumble this time. Their fixture list isn’t too bad, they don’t have to play City again and their remaining games against Chelsea and Spurs are at Anfield rather than down in London.
I should also give Spurs a mention. With games at Manchester City and Liverpool to come, I don’t think they will be able to close the gap on the top two, let alone overtake them. Tottenham’s achilles heel in general have been those games on the road against the very best. But I do think they’ll finish third and that’s an achievement given their relative lack of spending.
Game by game, how I see season ending...