CASEY AND THE SOLDIERS OF DESTINY DECLARE WAR ON SF
THE latest polling data suggests the tide is with Fianna Fáil and the Independents in the upcoming European elections.
Sinn Féin, however, are in danger of losing all three of their MEP seats because of the party’s decision to abstain from Westminster throughout the Brexit crisis.
Polling data seen by the Irish Mail on Sunday reveals this decision is hitting SF in its heartland – the border counties. Rising star Matt Carthy, who is expected to run for Europe and the Dáil, is now struggling to keep his seat as an MEP in the Midlands-North West constituency.
By contrast, the polls indicate that former presidential candidate Peter Casey is likely to secure the third of four seats available.
A source said: ‘Peter is not home and hosed, but he is on track to secure a seat. It is his to lose. Voters want at least one Independent and it won’t be Ming Flanagan.’
In an indication of Fianna Fáil’s strength in rural Ireland, FF TD Anne Rabbitte, rather than Luke (Ming) Flanagan will battle Carthy to win the last seat, with the first two being secured by Mairead McGuinness and Brendan Smith.
A senior FF source noted: ‘These figures indicate the reality of the FF revival in rural Ireland. We have gone from no seat five years ago, to competing for two with a less than stellar team.’
By contrast they said of SF: ‘They are now seen as having run away from the Brexit battlefield.’ The situation is equally grim in Munster for SF, where Liadh Ní Riada is being targeted by Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. A senior FF figure said: ‘Ní Riada is going to find it much harder this time. She was badly exposed in the Presidential election; she’s the failed candidate who couldn’t break 10%.’ Like SF, Fine Gael is concerned by the potential impact of a Clare Daly candidacy. One strategist warned: ‘If Daly runs she has the potential to take votes on all fronts; #MeToo, the Civic Alliance...’ SF are even more concerned about Daly, with senior sources warning: ‘If Daly does run, we are in real danger of a wipe-out. And if that happens, people will be looking closely at Mary Lou’s leadership.’