Dubs are not in decline... the chasing pack are closing gap
Super 8s will test the mettle of champions’ drive for five
IALWAYS assumed that one of the few blessings in giving up playing is that I would no longer have to endure the waiting season.
I used to hate this time of the year, kicking your heels waiting for the Championship to start. It was training, training and then more training – and not a game in sight.
The reality is just as acute when you are a supporter and, in many ways, the wait is a longer one now.
I know it has only been with us a year but the Super 8s is, for the elite counties, the only game in town and we really won’t know what way the land lies until we see them crash into each other in the second week in July.
That’s a long wait and there will be little to distract us along the way, especially not in Leinster or in Munster where the provincial Championships have been reduced to a farce.
Even though it is a long road from here to there, a combination of class, quality, tradition and recent Allianz League form gives us a firm indication of what the Super 8s will look like.
In fact, I would be willing to have a stab at the two groups given what we already know. Kerry, Donegal, Galway and Meath could figure in one group with Dublin, Mayo, Monaghan and Tyrone in the other.
But if they were on the starting grid, who would be in pole position to win the All-Ireland?
There is no surprise there but, nevertheless, this is shaping up to be one of the most thrilling football races we have witnessed in an age.
1 DUBLIN
Three defeats this spring and, as a result, their failure to reach a League final for the first time in Jim Gavin’s reign has teased suggestions that they may be in the early stages of decline.
The reality is somewhat different. Gavin visibly eased up on his team this spring – his refusal to taper his preparations to accommodate the experimental rules – was proof of that.
They still have the best players, best team and best panel, but you won’t really see them bare their teeth until the Leinster final.
Still, there is the sense that the gap is closing but that has more to do with the pack picking up speed than the pace-setter slowing down.
Biggest challenge? Apart from getting their consistency back, they will have to address that perceived vulnerability to direct ball, but they have an obvious answer. Recalling Rory O’Carroll might have seemed like a mad gamble at the start of the year but it makes good sense now.
2 MAYO
Winning the League was quite impressive considering they hadn’t earmarked it as a priority.
James Horan stayed true to his word that he had returned to build a team to win the All-Ireland rather than returning just to cajole his old one over the line.
In the space of a couple of months, they have gone from having the shallowest of panels to one of the deepest. Matthew Ruane’s introduction has been a success but I have seen enough in Michael Plunkett and Fionn McDonagh to suggest they can thrive this summer. And if they do, all bets are off. Biggest challenge? Getting to the All-Ireland final is the first one but when they get there, they need a change of luck. Down through the years, they have been cursed with misfortune, crazy sending offs, goalkeeping errors and own goals – one of these days, they’ll have to catch a break.
3 GALWAY
Kerry are considered serial contenders because of their quality forwards, but if that is what it takes, then Galway are their equals.
Shane Walsh, Johnny Heaney, Ian Burke, Michael Daly and Damien Comer – who will be back to full fitness for the summer – are attackers of real class.
They also possess is physicality which, at times, borders on being crude, but is essential in order to earn the right to play.
Biggest challenge? They are far too laboured in their approach play and need to borrow from Corofin’s game-plan as well as their players – starting with Kieran Molloy
4 KERRY
They have dropped a little down the rankings but not even those two defeats to Mayo can detract from a very positive League campaign.
A lot of good young players received valuable game time – Shane Ryan, Diarmuid O’Connor and Dara Moynihan, in particular, and they are better for it. Indeed, any attack that can boast Sean O’Shea, Stephen O’Brien, Paul Geaney and David Clifford will not be shy of scores or threat.
Biggest challenge? They need to nail down a full-back line – the key is handing Jason Foley a central role while they must develop a game-changing bench which would be possible if James O’Donoghue can recover his form of old.
5 DONEGAL
Ulster is a tight squeeze but I believe the best team up there did not even operate out of Division 1. The return of Paddy McBrearty, teaming up with Michael Murphy, Jamie Brennan, Ryan McHugh and rookie Oisín Gallen means they can sting for scores, while they have a genuine balance to their team. Biggest challenge? Their Division 2 final win over Meath revealed once more that they have an issue in their fullback line, while Declan Bonner needs to persuade Odhran MacNiallais to stay around.
6 TYRONE
They have undergone a radical change of emphasis in terms of style, going from a conservative ball-carrying possession game to a far more direct approach. The latter rounds of the League suggested that it is paying off handsomely, not least because both Cathal McShane and Mattie Donnelly provide ball-winning and finishing ability in the full-forward line.
Biggest challenge? While they have developed players this spring – Michael Cassidy the stand-out performer – and the gifted talent that is Darragh Canavan could see action in the months ahead, there is still a lack of depth, particularly in attack.
They need to keep their players fit, which is a big ask given the attritional nature of the Championship.
7 MONAGHAN
They have been the big disappointment this spring – I had them along with Mayo and Kerry at the start of the League as Dublin’s biggest threat – but their lack of consistency is a worry and that has always been their weakness.
I don’t think that is something a team like Monaghan can switch on and off, and they were very ragged at times in the full-back line.
They have also lost Darren Hughes to a fractured ankle for three months. That injury is compounded by the fact that his midfield partner Niall Kearns did not feature in the League, having undergone a cardiac procedure in the close season.
Biggest challenge? Apart from getting their collective mojo back, they need to come up with a complete new midfield pairing if Kearns does not make it back for the summer.
Kieran Hughes and Fintan Kelly present an option, but whoever manager Malachy O’Rourke settles on, it will hardly make them stronger.
8 MEATH
There is always a bolter in the Super 8s and Meath are the best placed this year.
They were excellent in the spring, and they have lost little momentum in losing to Donegal in the Division 2 final.
Manager Andy McEntee has them playing an exciting brand of football, while the likes of Donal Keogan, Cillian O’Sullivan and Mickey Newman would walk into most teams in the country.
Biggest challenge? They have to make sure they get to the Leinster final – Westmeath or Laois are genuine ambush threats – and if the price for getting there is a mauling by Dublin, they have to show the resolve to recover.
After all, getting this far is their All-Ireland.