Five lessons for general election

1 QUESTIONS are increasing over Leo Varadkar’s capacity as a campaigner and tactician. Having been soundly defeated by the less than charismatic Simon Coveney on the Fine Gael hustings, he was less than impressive in the by-elections where, having piled into Lorraine Clifford-Lee, he then left his own candidate twisting in the wind. He appears to panic and disappear when confronted by the unexpected. Not the best of qualities for an election brawl.

2 The real power game, the Green vs Labour battle is a bit like the chase for the third Champions League spot. The bestlaid plans of the Fianna Fáil mice and men can accommodate both the Greens and Labour, but who is going to secure second place and real power in the next coalition? On current indicators, it is going to be Tánaiste Eamon Ryan.

3 IT might be the sin that dare not speak its name, but the race card has entered Irish politics. It is unlikely to be as clear a factor as the claims made by opportunistic liberal advocates. Instead, it is a dog-whistle for generalised discontent in workingclass and rural communities. But the more people are told they are racists, the more likely it is that it will become a badge of honour.

4 It used to be said that academic wars were more bitter because of the smallness of the prizes. This was certainly the case with these four by-elections. Given the minuscule differences between the parties, the next election campaign is poised to be the most vicious we have seen yet.

5 EVERY election has surprises: Peter Casey in the Presidency; Verona Walsh in the by-elections. While the same issues may not rear their heads again, something will appear out of left field to test Micheál and Leo. How each deals with the election 2020 ‘unknown’ will decide their respective fates.