FF plots Valentine’s Day divorce
Martin sets his Ard Fheis date for February 14 as opposition puts a target on Health Minister Harris to trigger general election
FIANNA Fáil has scheduled its Ard Fheis for February 14-15, a signal that Confidence and Supply may end earlier than predicted.
General election candidates for the main opposition party have also been told to get out canvassing next week and in the run-up to Christmas, because of a possible election in late February or early March.
And with pressure likely on Health Minister Simon Harris in the New Year, after another projected winter of chaos in Health, the Valentine’s Day move is being seen as the informal launch date for Confidence and Supply divorce proceedings.
However, senior figures in both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil still believe the leaders will dedicate Herculean efforts to holding the Government together until late spring. ‘It will be put to TDs simply; do you want to campaign in the snow or in the warmer evenings?’ said a senior Fine Gael figure.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has said he would prefer a May election and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, whose party facilitates Fine Gael’s minority government through Confidence and Supply, wants April 12, but senior figures in both parties admit they may fail.
Sources say Labour and Sinn Féin are in a race to ‘take out’ Minister Harris and bring down the Government early next year. He is seen as ‘the weakest link’.
A Fine Gael cabinet minister said last night: ‘The by-elections were a reminder that winter elections are a nightmare. Candidates endure more hardship than they need to, canvassers are harder to come by and, most importantly, the public resent having to open their doors to an icy blast. Nobody likes paying to heat the air outside.’ However, events may well dictate the timetable.
‘It looks like the Tories will get a stable majority in Britain and we will have a definitive Brexit by 31 January,’ said a minister. ‘That means we will have a significant window of certainty in that area. All rationale for Fianna Fáil supporting a Government because of Brexit goes out the window.’
A minister projected a hypothetical scenario: ‘Say Sinn Féin or one of the leftist groupings tables a motion of no confidence in the Minister for Health.
‘In the scenario that Brexit has been done, how can Fianna Fáil support Minister Harris after a winter of health controversies? It would be very difficult, considering you’re only a few weeks away from the date it was to happen anyway.’
And the Finance Bill should be voted through by late January.
A number of senior figures in
Fianna Fáil agreed there could be a new government by St Patrick’s Day. ‘Leo and Micheál will be fighting it out for the dubious pleasure of meeting Donald Trump,’ said a Fianna Fáil frontbencher.
As Fine Gael bicker more fiercely amongst themselves over the performance of their ministers, the belief in Labour and Sinn Féin is ‘it is time to strike as the iron is hot’.
One senior Labour figure said: ‘We will let them linger until after the Christmas recess. Another couple of weeks of Dara Murphy will do us no harm, but then in the New Year we will clear them out.’
Standing Orders within the Dáil mean a motion of no confidence can only be put down on a minister once every six months. But by the time the Dáil returns, a year will have passed since the previous motion of no confidence in Mr Harris.
Labour Health spokesman Alan Kelly told the Irish Mail on Sunday that that decision was ‘a matter for the Labour Party, but we are, frankly, in a permanent state of no confidence in Simon Harris, and January and February are the worst months for the [health] service’.
Technically, if the Government loses a vote of confidence, Mr Varadkar could remain in office but one senior minister said: ‘There would be an element of Haughey hanging on in 1989 about it all, if we ignore a motion of no confidence. This is not the Fine Gael way of doing things.’
There are also serious levels of animosity between the rural wing and the ‘posh set’ in Fine Gael.
Figures within the party are growing deeply uneasy about the leader’s ‘uncertain party management’.
One minister noted: ‘He’s botched Eoghan Murphy and Verona, he botched the by-elections, he botched Maria Bailey and he botched Dara Murphy.’ They are ‘stumbling around with our trousers permanently around our ankles. Where is Superman gone?’ the minister said, adding: ‘The one thing Leo must not do after all that, is botch the election date. When we go for the Christmas break, we should not return. Call the election before the recess ends and we go out on our own terms carrying our shields with a bit of dignity.’
Fine Gael members also fear a triple entente between Fianna Fáil, Labour and the Greens. Sources said: ‘We will be fighting a war on three fronts. If those three transfer to each other this will cost us seats.’ Fine Gael fared poorly on transfers in the four by-elections. In Wexford, Labour’s George Lawlor made up a deficit of 1,500 votes to pip Verona Murphy for second place, transfers in Cork North Central saw Sinn Féin pass out Colm Burke, and in a Fine Gael flagship constituency, Dublin Mid-West, Paul Gogarty just fell short of pushing Fine Gael’s Emer Higgins into third place. One senior party boss warned: ‘Beware the transfers,
Leo! This pattern would be lethal in the late counts. It could cost us up to half a dozen seats.’ Unease is also growing over
‘We will let them linger until after Christmas’
the Independent Alliance.
One internal source said:
‘All discipline has disappeared from that lot. They are all fighting like cats and dogs. Half are not talking to the other half.’
They have, they added, ‘split into four Independent factions, and I wouldn’t be trusting a couple of those when it comes to any motion in Harris. They will be thinking: “save my seat”.’