‘A second wave could happen here again’
A SECOND wave of Covid-19 infection is likely, according to an expert on the 1918 Spanish flu.
Another key learning factor from the last great global pandemic is that essential workers should ensure that at least one other person is ready to take their role in the event they get diagnosed with Covid-19, historian Dr Ida Milne, told the Irish Mail on Sunday.
Dr Milne, who wrote the book Stacking The Coffins: Influenza War And Revolution In Ireland, said around 800,000 people in Ireland were infected by the Spanish flu, with 23,000 killed. Dr Milne said today’s pandemic is acting similarly in its ability to ‘paralyse society’.
Asked whether we could expect to see a ‘second wave’ of coronavirus, Dr Milne said she was not a clinician but that it was very likely.
‘Our experts are thinking about Covid20 which would be the second wave but because we’re in lockdown it will be difficult to tell if it’s a variant of Covid-19, a new virus or if it will be the same virus circulating once we come out of lockdown,’ she said. ‘If they were to release us suddenly, obviously numbers would escalate quite quickly.
‘In 1918, the first wave was minor in the spring and summer of 1918 but the second wave came in October through to December and there was a spike in the deaths. There was a third wave too and in some parts of the world there was a fourth wave – in South America and Northern Sweden. Dublin was badly hit in the second and third wave, it depended very much on local factors. Throughout 1918 and 1919, Donegal had continuous flu and that was down to seasonal labour and people were going over and back from Scotland and the Grand Fleet was stationed in Lough Swilly during the war, so soldiers coming into the community were spreading it.’
She added: ‘What happened in 1918, instead of the virus being a U-shaped curve it was a “W” so it pulled more from the 25-35 year-old age group, there was a lot of puzzle as to why that was happening. They tend to be the parents of young children and workers. There were high numbers of children orphaned in Ireland.’
In 1918, essential workers who provided utilities were getting sick and this led to severe strains on agriculture, water supply and fuel supply. Dr Milne said: ‘We need to protect farm workers, ensure they can continue to do their work. If numbers grow and we become overwhelmed. We need to protect people in essential services in utilities and provide supports for them. They need to get protective clothing too.
‘We don’t need waterworks going off. Kildare had one of the worst death rates in the country during the flu because they had limited water supply. Being able to wash your hands is crucial to this as we know.’
While our hospitals in 1918 were severely overwhelmed, Dr Milne said modern medicine learned a lot from the pandemic.
She said: ‘There was better health agreements made between countries and I think it’s possible that we could hope to see the likes of universal healthcare after this and the stockpiling of personal protective equipment in the EU.’