Time to weigh up two-metre rule
ON March 11, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of Covid-19 a global pandemic after the disease had quickly spread to more than 100 countries.
By March, those most likely to die from the infection were known to be in the over-60s age group. Why did we not heed the danger signs? Could we have done better? And can we yet do better? To ask these questions is not unpatriotic.
By June 11, 25,250 cases had been confirmed in the Republic. And 1,048 cases had been confirmed in meat plants and 8,116 in health care workers. There have been 1,705 deaths and more than 60% have been associated with nursing/care homes. More than 20 nursing homes have disputed deaths officially attributed to them and the HSE has trotted out the usual excuses for inaccuracy such as moving snapshots etc.
On June 1, The Lancet published a study from Canada, which is an overview of the best available evidence on physical distancing, facemasks and eye protection to prevent person-toperson transmission of Covid-19.
The National Public Health Emergency Team (NPHET) has been dictating most of the State’s lifestyle policy decisions since the outbreak commenced.
Casting a critical eye on the performance of State agencies in this crisis reveals a disturbing uniformity of less-thanacceptable standards. The Lancet data showed that social spacing of one metre or more reduced the risk in the range -7.5% to -11.5% and the greater the spacing the lower the risk. Facemask use resulted in a large reduction in the range 7% to 34%. Eye protection reduced the risk ratio on average by22%.
My conclusion is that masks are where it’s at right now and no ‘lack of data’ excuse from NPHET or the Taoiseach is acceptable. The HSE website states that the WHO and the European Centre for Disease Control are the foundations of their policy decisions.
The two-metre rule applies on the island of Ireland. The European Centre for Disease Control, Spain, France, Sweden, and the WHO all recommend one metre. Germany, the Netherlands and Australia have settled at 1.5 metres. Two metres has the most robust scientific evidence for avoiding spread of the virus through explosively discharged respiratory droplets. However, we also know that if we are to adopt the WHO advice and maintain a one-metre distance, our hospitals will be able to see twice as many patients in the months ahead.
And so a decision needs to be made – adopt two metres and effectively reduce our hospital capacity by 50% or adopt one metre and treat twice as many patients who do not have Covid but who have urgent medical and surgical problems.
Making that decision requires leadership and courage and an ability to hold firm in the face of those who would counsel that we leave ourselves open to litigation by reducing the gap. The activist can always be sure to guarantee risk whereas the expert can never guarantee 100% safety. So, which is it to be? Easy – in my view – one metre with a mandatory facemask!
‘Treat twice as many non-Covid patients’