A political gamble got us into this huge mess
WITH cases rising faster in Ireland than in any other country in the world, one must wonder was this avoidable? In short, it was a tragic political miscalculation.
While many focus on the difference between NPHET and the Government in November this is not the critical issue.
While the decision taken to reopen the economy in late November may have been misguided, there is a strong argument to suggest that that decision was made in the context of public pressure which may not have been quelled for much longer.
Our November Ireland Thinks/ Irish Mail on Sunday poll showed huge support for the relaxations and the Google mobility data tracker revealed subsequently there was more activity in retail and restaurants in early and mid-December than there had been at any other time since February.
The tragic mistake was instead in mid-December when what was on the horizon was much clearer.
In the lead-up to Christmas, the number of people carrying Covid rose to over 900 per day. But when Micheál Martin announced a return of Level 5 restrictions on December 22, household visits and inter-county travel were not restricted until December 27.
With the Government allowing up to three households to congregate indoors, Christmas became one large superspreader event.
THE received wisdom was that it would be ‘politically impossible’ or undesirable to do anything to introduce further restrictions over Christmas itself. This was wrong on three levels.
Firstly, it should be no surprise after the general election almost a year ago that many in Leinster House remain as out of touch with the public as they were then. This was politically possible.
Our poll in November (when cases were much lower) revealed a preference for restrictions at Christmas over a longer lockdown in January.
Similar polls emerged at the same time in the UK. There, pressed by a more active opposition, Boris Johnson on December 16 declared: ‘It would be inhuman to cancel Christmas.’ But three days later Johnson introduced those exact measures with over 70% support from the public. Johnson’s popularity has remained unaffected.
By contrast our failure to address the issue means that our cases per capita now exceed those of the UK – the home of the new strain.
Secondly, our approach was also guided by genuine concerns for mental health. In announcing this strategy, the Taoiseach described the centrality of those concerns: ‘It was important for people’s mental health and well-being that there was some respite from the restrictions that had been in place.
‘It is also important that people have the chance to celebrate the Christmas period with their loved ones.’
Indeed, it is true that mental health in Ireland is at an all-time low, with four in 10 describing a decline in their mental health over the preceding six months.
However, such a short-term view that Christmas would be worth the subsequent turmoil is perhaps the equivalent of treating depression with a shot of whiskey. Undoubtedly a fleeting respite that, incidentally, only some would enjoy prior to an acceleration of the underlying ailment. One might assume that the public could take precautions into their own hands. However, conducting a statistical analysis known as a ‘cluster analysis’ reveals that a large subset of the electorate follows and responds compliantly to the guidance of the Government whatever that may be. The group typically supports Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael, they’re generally older and more likely to attend church more regularly. This bloc ensures that there is a stable number of voters that believe the ‘current measures’ are appropriate even the day before and the day after those measures change. As an aside it is a completely understandable position from the perspective of anyone who might not be confident enough to undertake their own interpretation of the data.
BUT this group believed in the run-up to Christmas that their friends, family and neighbours would abide by the restrictions. Therefore, in following the guidance and having up to three households in their home this group was little prepared for the reality that many of those that they would share Christmas with would not be abiding by the restrictions.
This brings us to the final point, that political leaders do not have to be constrained entirely by public opinion, rather they themselves can shape the views of many of their followers through leadership.
Any decision to cancel Christmas would have almost certainly carried the support of the vast majority seeking more restrictions at that time.