The end is NOT nigh
Taoiseach’s bleak appraisal of the race against mutant virus strains, delayed vaccines, no imminent return to school or opening of shops, or end to bans on travel and home visits
THERE is a ‘race against time’ to get enough people vaccinated before new, more deadly variants of Covid19 take hold, the Taoiseach warned yesterday.
As the Government came under fire for floating a watered-down plan to quarantine people arriving into the country for just five days in hotels if they don’t have a negative Covid test, Micheál Martin admitted: ‘I’m very worried with the emergence of the variants.’
He told Brendan O’Connor on RTÉ Radio One he felt a ‘sense of anxiety and dare I say a fear about the impact of the variants on the trajectory of travel in dealing with this Covid-19 crisis’.
‘There are two issues here. One is there’s a race against time in the vaccination rollout, and on the other hand, the degree to which the variants will impact on transmissibility and severity of the illness… but also the potential of new variants to undermine the vaccine efficacy.’
In a wide-ranging interview that touched on issues from travel restrictions to the reopening of schools, the Fianna Fáil leader said not enough was yet known about the new South African and Brazilian variants of the disease, which it is feared could spread more easily, be more deadly and potentially render vaccines less effective.
‘On the South African variant and the Brazilian variants, the jury is out,’ Mr Martin said.
‘Research is not comprehensive
‘I expect some very robust engagement with AstraZeneca’
enough to say whether or not the vaccine can respond.’
However, he added that it appeared the Pfizer vaccine was still effective against the UK variant.
‘Science has moved very quickly in terms of vaccinations,’ he said. ‘We should remember that what normally takes 10 years took 10 months to develop vaccines.’
The Taoiseach also admitted he was concerned by the news that supplies of the UK made Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine would be 60% lower than hoped for in the initial stages due to manufacturing problems, as the EU vaccination programme is relying heavily on this vaccine, which is cheaper to produce and easier to store.
‘I’m concerned about that as well because I know there are contractual arrangements between the European Commission and AstraZeneca. And I expect some very robust meetings in the coming days and engagements between the European Commission and AstraZeneca,’ he said, saying it could affect our ability to vaccinate the over-70 age group as soon as was hoped.
But he insisted that with several other vaccines on the way, the goal was still to have mass vaccinations taking place towards the end of the second quarter of the year, with most of the adult population immunised by the end of September.
‘That’s in accordance with our scheduling, both in terms of delivery of vaccine and in terms of rollout,’ he said. ‘We were waiting for the authorisation of AstraZeneca and then at that stage, we would be in a position to announce to the public the broad details of our vaccination programme.’
He said that currently we are giving out vaccine supplies ‘as fast as we are getting it in’ but that eventually we would have the problem of what to do with surplus supplies.
‘Now AstraZeneca puts a problem in our midst, but we’re going have to deal with it,’ he said.
On the subject of when Ireland could come out of lockdown, the Taoiseach said he would like to see case numbers down to 100 or 200 before that could happen and indicated we could be in some form of lockdown for the first half of the year. ‘I think with the vaccines coming, there’s an argument to be cautious and conservative for the first half of this year until we roll out the vaccine,’ he said.
‘We will be witnessing far more prolonged restrictions than we have to date.’
He added: ‘I’m the Taoiseach but I have to consult with my colleagues and ministers, and we’ll consult with the opposition as well. But that is my sense of it until we get control and get a sense in terms of how the virus is mutating and the impact of these variants.’
He also emphasised the role that human behaviour would play in
suppressing the virus, along with Government restrictions.
‘I would still say that by the summer we’ll be in a changed environment. I think we will have more options. And with more options, we will have greater maneuverability in terms of decision making because of the large-scale vaccination that has been achieved by then,’ he said.
‘But I am sounding here this morning, and you can pick it up, caution and a conservative approach now because of how the virus is evolving.’
Put to him that ‘we slipped up very badly at Christmas’, Mr Martin defended the reopening for the festive season knowing that the new strain from the UK was on its way, by saying: ‘In retrospect, I think we didn’t see that variant coming in at that volume.
‘I think from my sense of it, the full enormity of the variant, the alarm bells weren’t ringing as maybe early as they could have.’
He added: ‘I think if we knew then what we know now, we certainly wouldn’t be doing that [reopening for Christmas] I have to say that.’
But the Taoiseach said the severe pre-Christmas lockdown in November probably led to a false sense of complacency as the infection numbers fell but fatigue settled in. Asked about soaring infection rates now in Belmullet, Co. Mayo, as well as reports of mass gatherings and pub lock-ins all over the country, the Taoiseach said: ‘I’ve heard those anecdotes. I’ve heard of lock-ins, Christmas Eve, when it was supposed to shut down.
‘There’s been a number of superspreader events as well, you know. Funerals have been problematic in some areas.
‘And I, you know, generally speaking, I think there was that sense abroad, that we were in a better space, and an underestimation of the virus.’
However, he insisted that he and the Cabinet weighed the information available to them.
‘We were getting a lot of warnings about domestic violence and mental health among young people all at the NGOs and mental health was saying the numbers are going through the roof in terms of enquiries, anxiety, stress, kids, and so on, and so forth.’
The Taoiseach would also not be
‘I just think there is a sheer determination to do something for families’
drawn into a blame game over who was responsible for schools not reopening for children with special needs as planned on Thursday, after special needs assistants insisted that they needed extra safety assurances before they would return.
And he indicated that while he would like to have special education restart early next month, it would likely not be until after St Patrick’s Day that other pupils would return to school.
‘I don’t want give a timeline because I don’t want to be walking anybody up any hill right now,’ he said.
‘I just think that there is a sheer determination to do something for families, especially children with special needs in particular.’
However, he added: ‘I would like to think of it certainly in the coming weeks.’
‘As a teacher, I’m passionate about education. We threw our heart into it before September.
‘But with a million people involved in our education, I think we’re gonna have to look at it differently now. In terms of how we reopen schools.’
Asked if this meant schools would be back before St Patrick’s Day, he said: ‘The full million won’t be back. Okay, but maybe we can phase things and look at doing things differently.’
He also would not be drawn on whether the Leaving Cert would go ahead or whether students would be offered the option of predicted grades again this year.
‘I’m not going to say anything here, because there’s enough anxiety and stress out there among young people,’ he said.
‘Anything we decide we can decide easily enough, but we’ve got to work it through and work through the implications for the students number one, in terms of of their situation.’
He added: ‘There’s a range of options that will have to be looked at and examined. And we want to do the best we can, in difficult circumstances for the young people involved.’