Holly’s olive branch: Coalition with Fine Gael is not ruled out
SOCIAL Democrats leader Holly Cairns has failed to rule out going into coalition with Fine Gael after the next general election.
Previously, Ms Cairns – who took over the leadership of her party earlier this year – appeared to rule out teaming up with Fine Gael because of its track record over the past 12 years in Government.
However, speaking exclusively to the Irish Mail on Sunday this week, she appeared to soften her stance.
‘I have huge ambitions for the party and the aim is to run as many candidates as possible,’ said Ms Cairns. ‘My experience is if voters are given a progressive choice on the ballot, they will usually take it.
‘We will speak to all parties after the election – but will only go into government if our policy platform will be implemented.’
But Ms Cairns flatly ruled out any possibility of a merger with the Labour Party, simply saying, ‘no’.
Although this week’s Irish Times poll appeared ominous for the Left, with Labour at 3% and the Social Democrats at 2%, an indication of the electorate’s volatility is the Social Democrats’ recent trending at 9%.
Asked if the Social Democrats want to hold the balance of power after the next election, Ms Cairns made a clear play for power, pledging the party’s aim is ‘to be in government after the next election’.
However, she also said her party would not go into government just for the sake of making up numbers.
‘We want to be in government after the next election but will not go into government just to make up the numbers,’ said Ms Cairns.
‘Our ability to influence a programme for government will depend on our number of TDs, as well as the makeup of the other parties post-election. We will be better able to determine our ability to exert maximum influence when the Dáil arithmetic becomes clear after the election.’
Ms Cairns also made a big play for the green vote, claiming that the Social Democrats were better positioned to act on climate change than the Greens, while at the same time courting farmers and the rural vote.
‘Regrettably, the current Government excels at climate rhetoric but fails dismally at climate action,’ said Ms Cairns.
‘There has been an abject failure to outline and allocate appropriate transition funds for those who will be most impacted by the need for climate action – like farmers.’
‘I am the only leader of a political party from rural Ireland – and have always been a strong advocate for rural Ireland,’ she said.
‘The concerns of people from rural Ireland are similar to those from elsewhere – access to quality public services like healthcare and education, job and development opportunities, reliable public transport options and a clean and thriving environment.’
In an implicit rebuke of the Greens and the current Coalition, she added: ‘Climate change is an existential crisis and climate action is a huge priority for us. In order to meet our targets, we must bring people with us and we are determined to do that.’
Sources in the main parties have previously told the MoS that there is a growing ambition for a coalition of the Left to replace the Green Party after the next election. That aim will be sharpened by Ms Cairns’s declaration that the party will consider all options.
Despite the accelerating tensions between the Social Democrats and the Labour Party, political interest is growing across senior levels of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael over the prospect of a deal with both. As the Greens and People Before Profit face a battle against annihilation, attention has primarily focused on the role that rural Independents could play in putting a government together.
Now, amid growing concerns at the top levels of Government over their own fraying relationship with the Greens, one Coalition source said: ‘We are starting to look at rekindling old ties with Labour and new ones with the Social Democrats.
‘The numbers will decide, and if it is a Fianna Fáil-led administration, the medicine might be a little easier. There is a world of difference between Micheál as a colleague and Leo as a boss.’
Recognition is also growing across the ranks of Labour and the Social Democrats that one or both parties could hold the balance of power. With the two government alternatives of Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael locked in a dead heat, both look set to be at least 15 seats short of a majority.
Recent polls suggest that in the Darwinian battle of the small parties, the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats are tightly bunched.
However, in a political development that may leave Eamon Ryan’s party fatally stranded, the Social Democrats are far more transfer-friendly than the Greens, while ancestral ties mean Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are far more likely to transfer to Labour.
One senior Coalition source said: ‘There could be as many as 15 seats available. It would be far preferable to do a deal with parties that understand the whip system rather than Independents that are like herding cats. There are 13 seats between both parties, so we are almost there. Fifteen seats would have a heck of a presence after any election. They don’t have to get married, they don’t even have to live together – they just have to occupy the same room.
‘In the likely absence of a preelection merger it all depends on whether Holly and Ivana can cut a deal between themselves. Throw in five or six rural Independents on top of that lot and maybe a spare, humbler Green or two, depending on how many get back, and you have a very strong bulwark of the centre to oppose Sinn Féin’, the source said.
And a Labour source said their party could cash in on anti-Sinn Féin sentiment among traditionally leftwing voters.
They said: ‘Holly is openly touting to be the Sinn Féin facilitator for governance. People are going to have to factor that in. Do voters who are thinking of switching from the Greens want to facilitate the views of the most anti-green issue party in Irish politics? Will they trust Sinn Féin on climate change? Those transferring will have to consider that.’