Spat over Budget could spark early general election
THE fallout within the Coalition over the health spending controversy could cause an early general election, sources told the Irish Mail on Sunday this weekend.
The three Government party leaders have insisted they intend to see out the Coalition’s full term, with an election sometime in spring 2025.
But with darker economic clouds looming, the health budget row has prompted many within Fine Gael in particular to call for an earlier election.
One senior party source said: ‘The sense is growing within that if we hang on until September or October, we will be dead men walking. Fianna Fáil will be fine; they are cosying up to Sinn Féin already and nobody wants the Greens.’
Another Fine Gael figure added: ‘There is a shortening window of opportunity, the money is running out. All the good news; the cash payments, the credits, the national pay agreements are coming in the next few months. You tend to only get one pre-election budget. [Finance Minister Michael] McGrath has had his.
‘No matter what fudge we do with health, that [funding shortfall] will come back to haunt us from the middle of the year.
‘There won’t be any money for
electricity credits or any nice things for the next budget.
‘There will be a minimum of a third less in available cash. If you thought this one was bland; wait until you see what is coming next. Tax cuts? Forget it. This was the pre-election Budget.’
According to current support levels, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael would secure more seats combined than Sinn Féin if the country went to the polls tomorrow.
And given the generally poor public response to Budget 2024, some within Government believe it would be better to move the election forward before next year’s Budget.
With a significant number of sitting Fine Gael TDs also set to retire, a party source said of an earlier election: ‘Why not get an election out of the way and build for the future?
‘There is a sense in Fine Gael especially that the Coalition is like a date that has gone on for too long. Fianna Fáil are nice sensible lads, but while everyone is being very polite, it’s just over.’
While Taoiseach Leo Varadkar, Tánaiste Micheál Martin and Green leader Eamon Ryan have publicly said they want the Coalition to see out its full term, one Fine Gael source said: ‘Leo is twitchy. He knows he left it behind the last time by running too late. He is wondering if he is in danger of repeating the error.’
Meanwhile, concern continues to be high in Government over the ongoing political fallout over the health budget.
Despite a public ceasefire, tensions are still simmering between the Fianna Fáil led Department of Health and the Fine Gael controlled Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DEPR).
A senior health official told the MoS: ‘They [DEPR] said inflation would be 4.5% we said their figures were wrong and it would at least be 6.5%. We were right.
‘We went into negotiations this year and told them the overrun was their fault, “we told you this last year. It [report on €2bn deficit in 2023 Health Service Plan] was all over the Mail on Sunday. This mess is your fault”.’
They said of the pre-Budget fallout between the departments: ‘It seemed to annoy them for sure. What happened to health was like a drive-by shooting.
‘DPER isolated us, told all the other departments that Stephen [Donnelly] had all the money and that was why they weren’t getting money.
‘As it turns out, Stephen didn’t have the money either but by the time the other departments found out it was too late.’