VULNERABLE SEATS KILDARE NORTH

CARLOW-KILKENNY

TRADITIONALLY a fine Gael heartland, but the departure of local dauphin John Paul Phelan and a paucity of talented alternatives spell big trouble for the party.

CLARE

THE rise of sinn féin, capable independents, a competitive fianna fáil team and uncertainty over sitting TD Joe Carey’s intentions have left fine Gael at the cliff edge without a parachute.

CORK EAST

THE disappearance of David stanton – did you not notice? – poses a challenge for the party, while the fate of a successor is dependent on the electoral tide.

CORK NORTH-WEST

THE disappearance of fine Gael gentry Michael Creed is the first case of a vacuum creating another vacuum. though there are viable candidates, it’s a big leap to replace a dynasty here.

DUBLIN BAY NORTH

THE departure of fine Gael’s Peter Pan, richard Bruton, leaves a sizeable gap for a hungry sinn féin to seize on.

DUBLIN RATHDOWN

FINE Gael would have struggled to keep two here between Neale richmond and Josepha Madigan. And now Ms Madigan is strongly expected to run for europe…

FINGAL EAST

ALAN FARRELL’S perennial struggles are likely to continue, and the margins are getting tighter.

FINGAL WEST

SOMETHING quixotic surrounds the attempt by senator regina Doherty to relocate. even if fingal is Dublin, not Meath.

GALWAY EAST

Quiet man Ciarán Cannon, left, faces a three-pronged independent-sinn féin-fianna fáil attack and is likely to suffer the fate of his old party, the Progressive Democrats.

KERRY

THE departure of Brendan Griffin to write children’s stories has created a serious gap in the Kerry market. Could now be the time for a Jimmy Deenihan comeback?

THE party is likely to lose if Bernard Durkan, its very own Winston

Churchill – in longevity at least – decides to call it a day instead of running again.

LIMERICK COUNTY

NOW that there’s finally a new rural party, could Patrick O’Donovan be an early casualty of the political rise of Independent Richard O’Donoghue? Stranger things have happened.

LAOIS

THE departure of Charlie Flanagan, the last member of Enda Kenny’s old guard, leaves the party vulnerable here.

LOUTH

DESPITE the ability of Fergus O’Dowd, nothing is certain here in the event of a Sinn Féin surge.

MAYO

THE fate of the party in one of Fine Gael’s very few remaining two-seat constituencies depends on its ability to hold off Sinn Féin. Two seats are likely to become one.

MEATH WEST

DAMIEN ENGLISH is in a dangerous space here. Votes been getting thinner, and sympathy may not get him home in what has now become essentially an urban constituency.

SLIGO-LEITRIM

FRANK FEIGHAN will need to continue his act as the Harry Houdini of Irish politics to hang onto his seat here.

WEXFORD

THE loss of a seat in the constituency redraw, coupled with an expected Sinn Féin surge, could create difficulties for great escape artiste Paul Kehoe, who’s been elected every time since 2002.