10 battlegrounds where FF seats are in real danger from the Sinn Féin surge
PUBLICLY, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin has ratcheted up the anti-Sinn Féin rhetoric in recent months, accusing the party of ‘infecting’ young people and, more recently its ‘populist’ call for the expulsion of the Israeli ambassador.
But politics is ultimately a numbers game, and based on current support levels Fianna
Fáil is likely to be the kingmaker in the next government – either with its current coalition partners or Sinn Féin.
The Irish Mail on Sunday examines 10 key battleground constituencies where Fianna Fáil TDs are under serious threat from Sinn Féin rivals, the outcomes of which could determine the shape of the next coalition.
CARLOW-KILKENNY
Difficult to see Fianna Fáil retaining its two seats if John McGuinness departs for Europe – even if his son Andrew runs and we are treated to the sight of Snr potentially running as an Independent in Europe and Jnr for Fianna Fáil in the Dáil.
CORK SOUTH-WEST
Like his Fine Gael and Social Democrat colleagues, Fianna Fáil’s leading woke figure Christopher O’Sullivan will be warily eyeing the Sinn Féin sharks.
CORK NORTH-WEST
Even without the presence of Liadh Ní Riada, whichever Sinn Féin AN Other runs should have enough to ensure the secondplaced Fianna Fáil candidate and Fine Gael will be battling it out for the last seat.
CAVAN - MONAGHAN
In the eye of the Sinn Féin surge, Fianna Fáil faces an uphill battle to cling onto its two seats here. Niamh Smyth, following her masterful performances at the helm of the Media Oireachtas Committee, is increasingly seen as one for the future. Brendan Smith less so.
DUBLIN NORTH-WEST
The northside is a dangerous place for Fianna Fáil TDs. Even a voluble first term
performance may not, as his former Fine Gael nemesis Noel Rock found, save Paul McAuliffe.
DUBLIN BAY NORTH
The departure of Fine Gael grandee Richard Bruton has improved Sean Haughey’s chances, but a swelling Sinn Féin tide means survival margins will be tight.
GALWAY EAST
The twin Independent and Sinn Féin threats mean Anne Rabbitte, like many of her Fianna Fáil colleagues, may end up depending on the charity of Fine Gael’s inability to survive.
LONGFORD-WESTMEATH
In a very rare example of political fusion, both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin will be working together to evict Fianna Fáil’s landlord TD Robert Troy, left, from the political stage.
WATERFORD
With David Cullinane certain to double – and potentially even triple – Sinn Féin seats here, Minister for Older People Mary Butler may find herself dumped into a political retirement home. Another constituency where surging Sinn Féin support leaves Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael duking it out for the last seat.
WICKLOW
Even the cleverest Minister for Health ever (Stephen Donnelly, in case you were wondering) is vulnerable if a Mary Lou-inspired tsunami doubles Sinn
Féin’s seats in this fractious constituency.