McGuinness to run for Europe
Solo run by veteran TD would leave Coalition’s razor-thin majority on a knife edge
VETERAN Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness is planning to contest the European elections as an Independent candidate, the Irish Mail on Sunday has learned.
This weekend, sources close to the influential Government backbencher said the Carlow-Kilkenny TD is giving ‘serious consideration’ to a solo run at Europe.
Although he has a fractious relationship with his party leader, Tánaiste Micheál Martin, if Mr McGuinness vacates his seat it will leave the Government’s razor-thin majority of one on a knife-edge.
Mr McGuinness’s departure would leave the Government having to rely on support from Independents in order to pass legislation in an election year.
In a further headache for the Government, several high-profile TDs are said to be actively campaigning for a run in Europe, which could leave the Coalition facing the nightmare prospect of having to fight no fewer than four by-elections ahead of the next general election.
Aside from Mr McGuinness potentially departing his long held seat in Carlow-Kilkenny, his party colleague Barry Cowen and departing Fine Gael TD Charlie Flanagan, are understood to be considering a run in the newly expanded MidlandsNorth West European constituency, which could potentially leave two Government seats vacant in LaoisOffaly. A by-election for two vacant seats in a single constituency would be an unprecedented scenario.
Meanwhile, speculation is growing that Fine Gael Dublin TDs Josepha Madigan and Colm Brophy are also looking to Europe.
A nod from party leader and Taoiseach Leo Varadkar for either TD would spark another by-election headache for Fine Gael and the Government in the capital.
Fine Gael is also facing a potential by-election in Cork North-West amid speculation Michael Creed – another veteran TD who announced they will not be returning to the Dáil – will look to fill departing MEP Deirdre Clune’s vacant seat.
Under electoral rules, if TDs are elected as MEP in next June’s European
elections, a by-election must be held within six months of the deputies vacating their Dáil seats, by December next year.
Sources said the prospect of fighting several by-elections so close to the next general election – currently scheduled to take place in Spring 2025 – could convince the Taoiseach to go to the country earlier, following a giveaway Budget next autumn.
Concern is growing within Fianna Fáil that the party could lose up to 10 seats in constituencies where its TDs are facing a dogfight with Sinn Féin rivals.
These include Carlow-Kilkenny, where the party is unlikely to hold its current two seats if Mr McGuinness departs.
Sources close to Mr McGuinness said the high-profile chair of the Oireachtas Finance Committee has been ‘openly raising the possibility or running as an Independent in Europe’ with close confidants.
One source told the MoS: This is not a frolic. He is giving it serious consideration, which is why he is not talking about it publicly. He wants to surprise the hierarchy.’
It had been speculated that Mr McGuinness might be a running mate for Fianna Fáil’s current MEP for Ireland South, Billy Kelleher.
But a source close to Mr McGuinness said: John is not interested in being some sort of political sweeper, picking up a few votes so Billy Kelleher can have five more years in Europe. He will only run if he thinks he can win and he thinks, as an Independent, he can win.’
The source said Mr McGuinness’ position is ‘informed by his growing disillusion with the incapacity of the Dáil to tackle bureaucratic ineptitude and corruption’.
They added: ‘A key factor in his current thinking was the wholesale rejection by [Public Expenditure Minister] Paschal Donohoe of the Finance Committee’s proposal for root-and-branch reform of the conditions and powers of [Government department] secretary generals.
‘It was contemptuous and high handed. It indicated the utter depth of this Government’s complete surrender to the master race of mandarins.’
Another source close to Mr McGuinness said the veteran TD
‘He is giving it serious consideration’
has grown increasingly disillusioned with his party’s inability to improve the lives of ordinary voters.
‘He does not have confidence in the capacity or will of the current Fianna Fáil leadership to effect change that improves people’s lives,’ the source said.
Outlining the rationale of Mr McGuinness thinking about quitting domestic politics and Fianna Fáil
after a 25-year Dáil career, a source said: ‘John’s view is that Europe makes the decisions now. They have become a huge source of oppression to rural communities in particular. They bypass the Dáil casually. If you want to effect change, the centre of power is Europe.’
But they added: ‘His view is that you cannot do that under a party
flag. If you are to be an effective advocate for the disempowered, then it can only be as an Independent voice.’
A solo European run by Mr McGuinness would seriously discommode the sitting Ireland South Independent MEP, Mick Wallace.
One McGuinness supporter said: ‘There is a sense Mick Wallace has
not delivered. He has wandered around the world supporting all sorts of odd regimes. He is like a big old plump well-feathered turkey that is ripe for the plucking. Sinn Féin can have the Green seat and we will be looking for Wallace.’
Aside from a potential seat loss in Mr McGuinness’s constituency, Fianna Fáil is also vulnerable to losses in the face of an expected Sinn
Féin surge in Cork South-West, Cork North-West, Cavan-Monaghan, Longford-Westmeath and Galway East.
The party is also expected to struggle to retain seats in the Dublin North-West, Dublin Bay North, Waterford and Wicklow constituencies, where Sinn Féin will be seeking to make gains.
Although, based on current support levels, Fianna Fáil appear to be best
positioned among the Coalition parties for a post-election return to the Government, there are fears within the party this could be in danger if it loses a significant number of seats.
One Fianna Fáil source said: ‘The role of Fianna Fáil [in the next Government]
with 25 seats or 35 seats will be very different. With 35 seats, we are partners, or we at least have a claim on the iron throne. With 25 seats we are Labour.
‘Some fellows would still go into power for the ministries, but they would find they don’t like it too much. The SDLP could tell them; Sinn Féin don’t do power sharing.’