BY-ELECTIONS MAY FORCE A MINORITY
A POSSIBLE unforeseen consequence of the European elections is that they may rule out the Government’s option of a 2025 general election.
Fianna Fáil and the Greens have said they want the Coalition to see out its full term and go to the country in March 2025.
Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has been less certain. A key factor in the Taoiseach’s perceived preference for an October election next year is that the Coalition could face up to seven byelections next December if they try to stay in power until 2025.
The by-elections could not be avoided because, under current rules, if TDs are elected in May there must be a by-election to replace their seats by December.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission confirmed: ‘The writ for the by-election must be moved no later than six months from the date of the vacancy occurring, so should a vacancy arise as a result of the European elections then the writ must be moved by the six-month limit in December.’
A similar scenario arose in November 2019 when, after the European elections, four by-elections were held in Dublin Mid-West,
Fingal, Cork
North-Central, and Wexford. The then-FG government lost all four. In 2024 depending on who the Coalition parties pick, should they be elected, they could face by-elections in the following constituencies:
■ Carlow-Kilkenny – John McGuinness, Fianna Fáil
■ Laois-Offaly 1 – Barry Cowen, Fianna Fáil
■ Laois-Offaly 2 – Charlie Flanagan, Fine Gael
■ Dublin Rathdown – Josepha Madigan, Fine Gael
■ Dublin South-West – Colm Brophy, Fine Gael
■ Cork North-West – Michael Creed, Fine Gael
■ Wexford – Paul Kehoe, Fine Gael
With 80 FF/FG/Green seats they have a majority – but should they lose one of those by-election seats they would become a minority administration.