Coalition TDs plead for early election to take out ‘shook’ Sinn Féin
Sources in Government outline hopes for spring dash to the polls
PRESSURE is growing within Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil for party leaders Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin to ‘take out Sinn Féin’ by calling a snap election next spring.
The calls from backbenchers in both parties come amid a growing sense that Sinn Féin is vulnerable following its first significant drop in the polls in the wake of the Dublin riots.
Several sources in constituencies across the country have also indicated the party is struggling to assemble an army of candidates ahead of the next general election, which is due to take place in spring 2025.
It is understood the party is hoping a surge in the local elections, which are due to take place in June next year, will provide the candidates needed to translate their support levels into Dáil seats and propel them into government in the Republic for the first time.
The Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and the Tánaiste have both publicly stated their desire for the Coalition to see out its full term.
However, a growing number of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil TDs believe the parties’ best chance of being returned to power is to call a ‘snap election’ next March to coincide with the referendum to remove the constitutional reference to the role of women in the home.
Sources in both parties said the decision to hold the referendum in March presents the Coalition with an ‘opportunity’.
A Fine Gael TD told the Irish Mail on Sunday: ‘Leo has the ability to call an election on March 8. The whole apparatus will be there… all you would have to do is print a few extra ballot papers.
‘That date would have tremendous appeal. We have choices here. We can either wait until the autumn, go over the top after disastrous locals and get mown down or we can hit them [Sinn Féin] when they are at their weakest.’ Another senior Fine Gael figure added: ‘We should show some courage and go for it now. Sinn Féin are in disarray, but they will recover. Why give them a chance?
‘The referendum in March gives us political cover. Why just hold one referendum when you have an entire infrastructure [for a general election] in place, in halls and schools… everything is booked.’
Fianna Fáil TD John McGuinness said the issue is also being canvassed within his party.
The Carlow-Kilkenny TD told the MoS: ‘I agree with the prospect absolutely. I raised it at the parliamentary party meeting that there should be an election simultaneously with the referendum. The spring of 2024 would be an entirely appropriate time to have a national conversation with the people.’
Another Fianna Fáil source said a snap election ‘would be a strategic spring nightmare for Sinn Féin’.
They added: ‘They are not prepared for the local elections, let alone a national election.’
However, a spring 2024 election would represent a U-turn from the Taoiseach and Tánaiste’s public comments on the matter so far.
Fine Gael’s only option to return to government would be through another coalition with Fianna Fáil, and unless Mr Martin is in favour of going to the country earlier, Mr Varadkar is highly unlikely to announce an election date without his support.
Intriguingly though, there have already been some low-key discussions between the main Coalition parties on the issue.
One Fianna Fáil TD told the MoS: ‘There is no doubt; significant elements of Fine Gael are gung-ho for an early election. They are putting feelers out.’
Another senior Fianna Fáil figure said of Mr Martin’s intentions: ‘Micheál is a fox. If he feels that there is a strategic advantage to going to the country early, he has been known to change positions.’
The calls for an early election come against a backdrop of growing Coalition scepticism about Sinn Féin’s capacity to secure a decisive electoral breakthrough.
Political opponents have been carefully watching to see if there is any sign of possible candidates to ‘staff up the Sinn Féin surge’.
One Coalition strategist said: ‘They are starting to subtly scale
‘We should show some courage and go for it now’
‘Where are the stars looking to run?’
down their ambitions. There is very little talk, for example, of winning three seats in five-seat constituencies. This is an absolute must if you are going to win 70 seats. You have to take three out of five seats in the big constituencies.’
A senior Fine Gael source noted: ‘The army of candidates is very slow to show up. Where are all the solicitors, doctors and lawyers and architects? Where are all the stars looking to run for Europe?
‘They’re struggling to fill a council slate. They’re putting everything on the [Sinn Féin leader] Mary Lou [McDonald] brand sweeping them in, but what happens if the brand doesn’t take?
‘Remember Labour and [former leader Eamon] “Gilmore for Taoiseach” and how that fared?’
One Fianna Fáil party figure said: ‘Outside of Dublin and possibly Cork, when it comes to the council elections there are constituencies with huge gaps, no candidates, no incumbents and no organisation.’
Another Fianna Fáil veteran said: ‘It is very evident across a lot of rural Ireland. Sinn Féin are not at the events or the local engagements.’
One senior Coalition strategist predicted Sinn Féin, as currently positioned, can expect little more than to mop up the gains that they should have made in 2020, adding: ‘They are at best a 55-seat party on current trends.’