As Shinners trip up, Varadkar and Martin should make hay
THE latest opinion polls provide comfort to both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in that they have more than an even chance of returning to Government Buildings after the next general election. The apparently inexorable rise of Sinn Féin seems to have stalled at between 28% and 32% support among voters, but the combined support for Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael is holding firm at around 37%. With Government party supporters likely to favour each other at the polls, and manage their second preferences accordingly, the number of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael TDs returned next time may reflect ‘overall’ support of 40% or more.
The problem for both Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Tánaiste Micheál Martin will come with the formation of a government, because of the difficulty they’ll have in finding a third wheel. Eamon Ryan’s Green Party, with 7% of votes in 2020, is now facing a humiliating setback and could see a repeat of the 2011 general election wipe-out when the Greens lost all of their six seats.
THE Greens received only 1.8% of the vote and had to wait until 2016 to start the revival, winning two seats with 2.7% backing. Now they are on 3%, and taking account of the usual 2% margin of error, on a good day they could return to the Dáil with perhaps five to seven seats.
After that, Varadkar and Martin will turn to ‘like-minded’ independents (and there’ll be enough of those) or even Ivana Bacik’s Labour Party, whose only mission next time out is to survive, to seal the deal for a return to power.
In that event Mary Lou McDonald and Sinn Féin will be locked out for the second time in a row, bleating inanely, as in 2020, that the electorate voted for change when it didn’t, and characterising the main parties as bullies. Poor pets.
One thing the Shinners will not do is recognise the ugly baggage that weighs heavily on their burning ambitions for power over all of Ireland – their past and now retrospective support for Provisional
IRA mass murder and mayhem in the North, the UK and Ireland during the horrendously violent tribal conflict from the late ’60s to the mid-’90s. Despite such concerns being dismissed as old hat by younger, trendier supporters of the party today, the whiff of sulphur and of human carnage still hangs in the air and sets an upper limit on Sinn Féin’s appeal to voters, especially those aged 50 and above.
There were echoes of that this week in Belfast when leading Sinn Féin MLA Gerry Kelly – who was convicted and given a hefty jail sentence following IRA bombs in London in the early ’70s – had his libel case against journalist Malachi O’Doherty thrown out, in the most emphatic and unceremonious manner imaginable.
Kelly foolishly sued for damages after O’Doherty stated he (Kelly) had shot a prison officer during the notorious Maze escape by IRA prisoners in 1983. The High Court described his case as ‘scandalous, frivolous and vexatious’ and characterised the action as a so-called Slapp (Strategic Lawsuit Against Public Participation) initiated ‘not for genuine purposes’ but to stifle the voice of ‘troublesome critics’.
Down south, Sinn Féin figures have also demonstrated a willingness to issue defamation proceedings, including those by party leader McDonald against RTÉ. The merits of McDonald’s action are for the courts to decide, but the political wisdom of such a move is questionable to say the least.
On the upside, it puts us all on notice of Sinn Féin’s aptitude for strategic error, for shooting itself in the foot, at a time when power seems so close.
AS Sinn Féin continues to trip itself up with more unforced political gaffes – such as McDonald’s proposal to force down the average value of a house in Dublin by 30% despite the negative-equity impact that would have for thousands of homeowners – Leo Varadkar and Micheál Martin need to put clear ground between themselves and their main rivals, between financial prudence and radical, wrecking-ball nonsense, between having adults in the room and untried, untested blowhards with a tendency for populism that could impoverish vast swathes of property owners.
Varadkar and Martin need to show more confidence, regain the initiative and press home their ‘centre politics’ advantage. The Shinners are under pressure, like being four points down with three minutes to go in a Munster final.