Risky Business
Ireland’s ‘Keep calm and carry on’ approach could yet backfire in this Six Nations
UNFINISHED business, unfulfilled potential and unrealised ambitions. The World Cup campaigns of Ireland and France concluded in the same depressingly familiar fashion. The two form nations on the globe were heavily tipped to clash in a World Cup final for the ages.
Indeed, both teams had played out an absolute humdinger of a contest in last year’s championship, teeing up a rematch on the world’s biggest stage later that year.
South Africa and New Zealand had other ideas, however. Over the course of two chaotic evenings at Stade de France, Ireland and Les Bleus were sent packing at the quarter-final stage.
Whatever about the farcical seedings system which saw the best four teams in the tournament all end up on the same side of the draw, the Irish and French camps knew they left those games behind him. They still know.
A brace of blockbusters decided by the smallest of margins. A charged-down conversion from Cheslin Kolbe and a try-saver from Jordie Barrett making all the difference.
On Friday night at the magnificent Stade Velodrome in Marseille, Ireland and France will meet again in the opening game of this year’s Six Nations. The final we never got to see.
Has the hangover subsided? Which team is going to react better to the crushing events of four months ago? We’ll know soon.
Ireland know that they blew their best chance of making a semi-final in the 36-year history of the tournament. France, meanwhile, had a golden generation which failed to land a title on home turf.
It’s not something you get over quickly. Some of them may never fully process what happened.
The wheel keeps turning, though. Landing a Six Nations title won’t make up for a World Cup failure, but it can speed up the healing process.
And the winner of this first-round tie will be in pole position to push on and secure the trophy.
Ireland’s draw is especially favourable. If they manage to land a big win on French soil, then they have the Italians in Dublin, with a handy nine-day turnaround.
Then they have two weeks to build towards another home tie against the Welsh. And then another week off before they prepare for a trophy-defining fortnight, beginning with a visit to Twickenham and then a match against the Scots in the capital on St Patrick’s weekend.
Ireland will quietly fancy their chances of sealing back-to-back titles for the first time since Joe Schmidt’s squad did the same thing in 2014 and 2015. Another Grand Slam is not beyond them either, a feat which has never been achieved in the Six Nations. You have to go back to the old Five Nations to source that stat, when a brilliant French team landed successive clean sweeps in 1997 and ’98.
What a way to bounce back, eh? The big question is whether this squad can pick up from where they left off in Paris in October.
Because Farrell’s charges were in great shape prior to that ill-fated game against the All Blacks. A 17-match unbeaten run featuring a series win on New Zealand soil and a Grand Slam along with plenty of other big scalps along the way. In truth, though, they lost the game which really mattered. It would have been fascinating to be a fly on the wall for the post-World Cup debrief on Monday. Farrell left it until this week to finally sit down with his players and sift through the wreckage.
He has effectively backed the same group to pitch up and begin the next rebuild. The only changes in personnel have been enforced, either because of injuries or retirements.
You can see Farrell’s logic. After a shaky start in the gig, he steadily built the national team into a global force over the course of a transformative 24 months. Do you rip everything up and start again because of one blip? It was a big blip, mind you. And, sooner rather than later, Farrell is going to have to start thinking about the next World Cup in Australia. The Ireland head coach said he didn’t believe in four-year cycles earlier this week.
Well, something needs to change, clearly. We’ll be in 40 years of hurt territory when the next global showpiece in Australia looms into focus.
For now, Farrell is focusing on the task at hand.
He has turned to Peter O’Mahony to fill the leadership void left by Sexton. He has backed a core group of veterans around him, many of whom will struggle to make the long-haul flight to Sydney in 2027.
It was instructive to see many of the coaches and captains of the rival nations up close at the Six Nations launch at the Guinness Storehouse earlier this week. There is a freshness about the teams ahead of this campaign. There are new coaches, backroom appointments, players and captains galore. And it’s not just the Six Nations rivals making moves, the southern hemisphere heavyweights are turning the page as well.
The Wallabies have turned to Schmidt to revive a sleeping giant of the global game. Scott Robertson is really going to energise and revamp the All Blacks. Jacques Nienaber and Felix Jones have left the Springboks, leaving Rassie Erasmus to infuse some fresh faces into the coaching team.
Ireland are staying the course. Farrell will change things up, gradually. He has backed the usual characters to park the World Cup pain and go again.
So, what are their chances? All eyes will be on Jack Crowley next week as the Munster out-half takes the reins at No10.
It’s fitting that Crowley is succeeding Sexton as conductor in chief. The Bandon native looked the only contender who had the potential to shake up the established order at out-half.
Sexton was virtually unchallenged for the four years heading into the previous World Cup. Jack Carty and Billy Burns came and went. Ross Byrne, too. Well, until an 11th hour reprieve. Even then, Byrne was kept on board as a reliable, safe pair of hands rather than a genuine starting option.
Crowley amassed nine Test caps during a late surge into Farrell’s plans. He didn’t see a second of action against the All Blacks and remained on the bench for the duration of that ill-fated quarterfinal. Still, Crowley would have been happy with his contributions in France.
This will unquestionably be the biggest game of his career thus far. Farrell will be hoping Crowley can make the step up as well, because alternatives are thin on the ground.
Ross Byrne is injured while his brother Harry has undoubted potential but a worrying injury profile too. Same goes for Ciaran Frawley.
There are worries about the depth chart at loose-head prop and fullback. And who is going to step up and grab that vacant right wing spot with Mack Hansen and Jimmy O’Brien ruled out?
There are welcome selection headaches at lock – where Joe McCarthy is making a compelling case for a start – the back row and in midfield. Will it be enough to get past a French team, shorn of Antoine Dupont and a few other big names, on the opening night? A win would galvanise this squad and set them up for a big title charge.
Lose, and questions may be asked about an ageing captain, a closed shop mentality when it comes to selection and worries about a failure to evolve in the wake of the World Cup failure.
Plenty on the line, indeed. It’s business as usual for Farrell and Co. The worry is that their Six Nations rivals may cash in.
Farrell has backed the same group to begin the next rebuild