Tánaiste urged to cash in on Sinn Féin slump and push for early poll
Coalition engaged in intense debate over timing of a general election, with some in Fianna Fáil now at odds with leader Martin
THE likelihood of a general election this year has increased amid growing pressure on Coalition leaders to capitalise on the slump in support for Sinn Féin, the Irish Mail on Sunday has learned.
It comes as a Red C poll published last weekend found that support for the main opposition party has dropped to just 25%, in a dip from 32% last October.
Intense debate has broken out at the top of the Coalition over the timing of the general election, which is scheduled to take place by next spring.
While Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fine Gael favour an early election, Tánaiste and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin and his
Green Party counterpart have both publicly stated they want the Coalition to see out its full term.
But support for an early election has been growing among Fianna Fáil ministers who want the Coalition to capitalise on Sinn Féin’s current woes.
Cabinet sources this weekend said that the Taoiseach will need the ‘wisdom of Solomon to please competing factions’.
The preferences among senior ministers over the date to go to the country range from going all the way to the deadline of March 2025 to a snap election to be held this April ahead of the June local and European polls.
Sources close to Mr Varadkar say the most likely ‘compromise is late October/early November this year’.
Summoning up the dilemma facing the Taoiseach, one senior minister told the MoS: ‘Every election is tagged as the most important ever. But the next one will decide whether Ireland continues on its centrist path or turns to populism. Sinn Féin admits that is what they are – populists – and it is a democratic decision. Still, it’s a big one.
‘This is what makes it so complex. Timing may force their juggernaut off the road and help the Government, so that makes Leo’s decision a powerful one.
‘But there are also powerful voices within Government – namely the other two party leaders who favour the most conservative route.’
A Cabinet member who is familiar with the Tánaiste’s thoughts on a general election date said Mr Martin wants to build as many more houses as possible before going to the country.
The minister told the MoS: ‘Micheál believes that we missed out on many opportunities to enact policies because of Covid, and also, it must not be forgotten, it took nearly half a year to form a government at all.
‘A self-respecting coalition should try and take its full opportunity to achieve, and not be playing in cheap tricks to gain unattainable and unmeasurable advantages.
‘Mr Martin believes an awful lot more houses can be built between autumn 2024 and March 2025, and this could decide the election more than anything. Eamon Ryan has said this publicly too.’
There are also differing views at the top of Government about the significance of Sinn Féin’s current poll performances.
A Fianna Fáil minister said: ‘Fianna Fáil members want us, and particularly their leader, to concentrate on what we’re doing and our candidates, not on what Sinn Féin are doing. We are confident of our history and our future.
‘Also, you can’t discount that coalition with Sinn Féin is a possibility for us, and it isn’t for Fine Gael, so we have a few routes.
‘Either way, our leader is less concerned about catching Sinn Féin on the hop. He is also less swayed by polling… Fianna Fáil has made the mistake of over-relying on that ourselves in the recent past.’
But this view is not shared by all of the Tánaiste’s Fianna Fáil ministers, some of whom believe an election as early as April would give the Coalition a stronger chance of returning to power.
One minister said: ‘There is an extreme view that if Sinn Féin continues to struggle in the polls, we have to give serious consideration to going before the local and European elections in June.
‘This would deprive them of the oxygen of any local and European gains [they may make] and catch them totally unprepared.
‘I admit, this is an extreme view, and would require great audacity by Leo, but it’s possible.’
But many other voices do not believe the two big Coalition parties could conceivably get all their selection conventions and logistics in line before April.
And with the opposition to such an early date shared by Mr Martin and Mr Ryan, it is believed any general election this year will follow a giveaway Budget in October or November.
A Cabinet source said: ‘Leo has somewhat allowed the narrative to get out of control and let people believe that there is going to be an early general election.
‘But don’t forget that he must keep Micheál and Eamon’s considerations in mind. Yes, it’s the Taoiseach’s prerogative, but if Leo Varadkar wants to be in Government next time, he must do it with his current partners. He doesn’t want to annoy them.’
‘Pleasing them all needs the wisdom of Solomon’
‘Leo doesn’t want to annoy current partners’
More cynical members of Government say the numbers and fear of Sinn Féin will dictate Coalition agreement rather than, as one put it, ‘hurt feelings’.
‘Leo has constantly railed against a February election but, personally, I don’t see a huge difference between November and February in Ireland. Still, the prophesy has been created,’ a minister familiar with Mr Varadkar’s thinking told the MoS.
‘Also, it must be remembered, Fine Gael leaders – Enda Kenny and Leo – have been criticised for not seizing the advantage and going at an opportune time for the 2016 and 2020 elections and Leo is, I know, aware of this.
‘So if he doesn’t decide to go all the way to March, you’d be looking at the late autumn.’